Ryan tried to improve support for the bill by pushing the CBO’s estimate that the AHCA would save $337 billion in federal spending between 2017 and 2026. And by 2026, according to the CBO, “an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law”.
In 2026, there would be 24 million more Americans without health insurance likely due to changes to Medicaid.
With even the most extreme conservatives opposing this plan, Republicans are miles away from repealing the Affordable Care Act.
Obamacare provides subsidies for low-income Americans to pay their deductibles. In fact, they think CBO is a little too optimistic. The report also says 14 million more Americans would be uninsured next year under the new act than under the existing law.
The legislation calls for swapping out the current Obamacare subsidies with tax credits, expanding health savings accounts and phasing out a planned expansion of Medicaid.
Critics say the CBO’s definition of “insured” excludes people who might only purchase the kind of bare-bones coverage eliminated under Obamacare.
While the number of uninsured Americans would immediately climb, the trajectory for premiums is more complicated.
Premiums would go up as healthy people drop out of health insurance and companies struggle to bring in enough cash to pay out on their remaining, presumably sicker, customers. Republicans have said there are certain features of Obamacare that they’d like to retain.
Premiums in the individual market could rise up to 15 percent until 2020, then decrease.
“While the report contains some encouraging findings related to long-term premium costs, other forecasts give me significant concern and there are serious questions that need to be answered”, Katko said in a statement today.
Analysis by the Los Angeles Times, however, had suggested that lower-income, older voters in conservative, rural parts of the country – the sort of people who overwhelmingly turned out for the NY tycoon – stand to lose the most. However, they would vary significantly by age, since insurers would be allowed to charge up to 5 times more for older adults than younger adults.
Republicans suffered a major blow on Monday as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published a damning projection of the American Health Care Act, the GOP’s plan to repeal and replace Barack Obama’s flagship healthcare plan. Speaker of the House Paul D. Ryan is leading the effort.
On MArch 12, senior Trump administration officials attacked the CBO’s credibility and downplayed the upcoming report.