And, given 20 free minutes to talk rather than debate soundbites or interview questions on topics he can’t control, he’s able to impress. The businessman and entertainer is leading in Iowa and nationally, crowding out conservatives. He mostly held steady among men (28 percent).
Yet a random variable could throw off these calculations: Donald Trump.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who was viewed as the victor of the undercard debate, jumped from 2 percent to 5 percent.
Bush, the former Florida governor, has dropped to 9 percent – fourth place, down from 15 percent and second place in a Fox News poll conducted earlier this month, before the first GOP presidential debate. They are exhausted of the divisive politics of the latter, and the political double-speak of the former. “It’s just another one of those glass ceilings”, he said.
I’d risk a guess that the third of these outcomes is the least likely.
Polling numbers back up their popularity. A “Tanned. Rested. Ready” Jindal, as his campaign slogan pilfered from the much-despised Richard Nixon, describes him hasn’t gained much traction and continues to languish low in the polls known as he is to less than half the Republican voters. Among debate watchers, the highest “net” of those two performance scores (best minus worst) is Fiorina (+12 points), followed by Carson (+8), Kasich (+8) and Rubio (+7). Bush tied Clinton in June and was up by one-point in May.
Carson, in particular, excels when he’s in control of the microphone. McDaniel said he is “personally” leaning toward Bush because of his affinity for President George H.W. Bush. “A lot of these guys have different appeals”. But Carson attracted a massive crowd of his own to his turn on the Soapbox on Sunday.
On the Democratic side, front-runner Hillary Clinton dropped below 50 percent for the first time to 49 percent, while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, for the biggest gathering at the Iowa State Fair staple.
When Wallace challenged Carson on his assertion, Carson responded that during a recent visit to Israel, he “couldn’t find a single person there who didn’t feel this administration had turned their backs on Israel”. I’ve said over and over why he isn’t going to be the party’s nominee, but, true, I haven’t explained the how of it. “He gets himself in trouble”, Bennett said.
Trump isn’t the only one climbing.
True, plenty of candidates who have had unconventional qualifications and who displayed unconventional political behavior have won statewide primaries for senator or governor, especially in multicandidate fields.
Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn likened Trump to the 2012 version of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, who led in Iowa for a time during that cycle.