2016 set to break heat record despite slowdown in emissions

But while the decoupling of emissions and economic growth represents the first meaningful peacetime slowdown in global emissions growth since the industrial revolution, experts have counselled against complacency. And while the pause is welcomed, its longevity may be shortlived as pollution from nations such as India increases. “Global emissions now need to decrease rapidly, not just stop growing”, Le Quere said.

“So far the slowdown has been driven by China”, said co-author Glen Peters, of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, who added that Beijing’s climate change policies would also be the dominant force in future since it accounts for nearly 30 per cent of global emissions. In 2014, China’s coal use dropped 3 percent. They declined by 2.6 percent in 2015 and are expected to fall an additional 1.7 percent this year.

The researchers said that it’s unclear whether the slowdown – mainly caused by declining coal use in China – is permanent or just a blip.

The United States has also played a role in the global emissions slowdown, largely driven by improvements in energy efficiency, the replacement of coal with natural gas and, to a lesser extent, renewable energy.

The NAP Global Network was established in 2014, and its membership has since grown to 34 countries, including Brazil, Germany, Jamaica, Japan, Malawi, Nepal, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, Togo, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry were set to rise by 0.2% in 2016 from 2015 levels- to 36.4 billion tonnes- in the third consecutive year with negligible change. “Acting on climate change is in all of our national interests – it is good for our environment, good for our economies, and good for our climate security”, a group of “high ambition coalition” ministers who have gathered in Marrakech said in a joint statement Sunday. The US has so far only delivered $500m of a promised $3bn contribution to the Green Climate Fund, which aims to disburse $100bn a year to help poorer countries deal with global warming by 2020.

The new research also suggests that, starting in 2017, the world will have only 800 billion tons, or gigatons, of carbon dioxide left to emit if it wants to preserve a two-thirds chance of preventing the planet from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. That means keeping fossil fuels in the ground instead of extracting and burning them. President Obama has contributed to that momentum by, among other things, convincing China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, to embrace the Paris Agreement process.

Carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels have been almost flat for three years in a row – a “great help” but not enough to stave off unsafe global warming, a report said Monday. How the nation chose to put this climate denier in charge of things will go down as one of history’s great mysteries.

The independent analysis from Decarbonization Pathways Canada comes as federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna joins an worldwide climate summit in Marrakech, Morocco, where the mechanics of last year’s Paris climate accord are being negotiated.

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