7 things to understand about the suddenly messy AFC playoff race

Right now that team is the Houston Texans.

At first glance, the AFC playoff picture seems clear-cut, but a lot can happen that can change the fortunes of each team.

Beat the Dolphins, and the No. 1 seed is theirs.

Kansas City isn’t going to the Super Bowl.

At one point, the Broncos were 6-0 while Kansas City was 1-5. However, despite the fact the Bengals still have plenty to play for, they might have to do it under the guidance of ex-Ravens draft pick and practice-squad quarterback Keith Wenning, who could be filling in for the injured Andy Dalton.

A loss at the hands of the Ryan Mallett-led Baltimore Ravens leaves Pittsburgh in a precarious position.

The Bills can’t make the playoffs, but this game should be a hard-fought battle nonetheless. If the Broncos and Chiefs lose and the Jets win, this seed goes to NY.

The top seed in the NFC is down to the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals.

DETROIT 23, CHICAGO 20: At times this year, the Bears have shown a propensity for beating visiting teams that, on paper, are much better than they are.

After all, that’s what a season is – dozens of individual betting decisions; made one at a time. The Steelers are playing the Browns in Cleveland.

According to Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Sunday’s loss to the Ravens was the 13th loss to a sub-.500 team the last four seasons, which is more than enough to make it more than a statistical fluke.

The Steelers were widely hailed as the team no one wanted to see in the playoffs. They’re going to fight. The AFC South has been a watered-down mess all year, and the Jaguars’ improvement is a big reason why. The Indianapolis Colts (7-8) are still alive, but barely. The Titans have only won one home game this year, and they won’t improve on that today. It will be interesting to see how BB manages the game from a coaching standpoint, because the Patriots do have something to play for this week.

But the Patriots are an injury riddled mess, injuries that a bye week won’t solve. Like Cleveland, Miami is a franchise that has to blow everything up – starting with its stadium, hopefully – and start all over again. NY got the ball to start overtime and drove down the field to the six-yard line.

Jacksonville’s only hopes involved finishing in a tie atop the AFC South at 7-9, and Houston getting an eighth win removed this possibility. Other than the Seahawks, Packers and Vikings, the rest of the NFC is set. Like the Chiefs, they have a nine-game win streak, including a 30-point win over the Packers, a 3-point win over the Vikings, a 3-point win over the Bengals, and a 7-point win over the Seahawks.

Playoff Odds Movement: +12.3% Week 16 Result: Def. Tennessee, 34-6 Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 87.5% Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 99.8%.

Even if NY won their final two games and Washington fell to Dallas in Week 17, Washington would win the tiebreaker between the 8-8 clubs via a superior conference record.

The Chargers are out of contention but the Broncos have plenty to play for. Tough call, and the good news is I don’t have to call it right now.

Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) – clinched playoff berth.

If the Broncos and Patriots both win this weekend, this seed will belong to Denver. Kansas City won’t win the division, but it has inherited the mantle of the “team you wouldn’t want to play in January” from Pittsburgh.

The Seahawks will be the No. 6 seed and play at the Minnesota/Green Bay victor on Wild Card Weekend unless Seattle and Green Bay both win, in which case the Seahawks will head to Landover and face the Redskins as the No. 5 seed.