NOAA predicts a mild winter for Alaska

El Niño refers to when prolonged warming occurs in the Pacific Ocean and sea surface temperatures rise, having a knock-on effect on weather conditions. This year’s El Nino is expected to continue strengthening and is forecast to surpass the 1997-1998 record El Nino.

In this prediction, the center does not specify how much of the precipitation falls as snow, ice, or rain, only that more is likely, overall.

Chances of a wetter-than-normal winter for the Reno-Tahoe area are increasing but warm temperatures could limit crucial mountain snowfall, federal forecasters said Thursday.

Since El Nino is only one of many players in the forecast, it’s to note (graphic above) that strong El Nino winters in Virginia can be highly variable. As expected, both reflect what you would expect during a strong El Niño year.

They are also predicting that the southern tier of the contiguous US will have cooler and wetter weather.

Even Northern California – home to the all-important Sierra Nevada and its water storing topography – should see average precipitation, which would be a welcome departure after four years of mostly bone-dry winters. Currently, more than half the state is categorized as category D4 exceptional drought – the most severe category assessed by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Southern tier and Atlantic coast will have wetter than average conditions.

“The scenario is looking at patterns of weather that more than likely lean toward above normal temperatures”, said NWS meteorologist Kevin Witt.

The U.S. Drought Outlook shows a few improvement is likely in central and southern California by the end of January, but not drought removal. California would need about twice the average rainfall to get out of the drought, which researchers say is unlikely.

Halpert said one season of above average precipitation will not erase California’s drought, but will help.