Tracking Down The Uninsured, Yet Eligble, 10.5 Million

By the end of 2016, enrollment in the exchanges – a key component of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – is expected to range from 9.4 million to 11.4 million, up from an HHS-projected enrollment of 9.1 million at the end of 2015.

In its most recent estimate in March, the Congressional Budget Office projected that 21 million Americans would have such coverage next year. Insurance company counselors are seeing many who have their subsidies completely eliminated for that same reason.

The impending enrollment period, scheduled to last three months, is expected to be devoid of the massive computer defects with HealthCare.gov, the federal online enrollment system, that initially stymied consumers trying to buy plans when the marketplaces first opened in October 2013.

“In 2013, had I said to the world that Obamacare is only going to enroll half of the estimated people, what do you think Obama would have said?” he added. The administration announced Thursday that there will not be a cost of living increase next year.

Finally, survey data show that the uninsured have concerns about whether they can afford coverage.

All this leads to instability in the insurance markets, as we enter the new sign-up season, which begins on November 1 and ends on January 31, 2016. Although the projection indicates little growth, the enrollment of 10 million people would still be a critical mass and insurance carriers are committed to the exchanges for now.

The affordability of health insurance has been brought up by both Republican and Democratic presidential candidates ahead of the 2016 election, and the administration’s success or failure in signing up people for coverage next year could heighten that debate. “It’s a strong, realistic goal”, she said.

It’s unknown if enrollment will increase this time around. But officials have said that number is expected to drift down to 9.1 million by the end of this year as a few of those people get coverage elsewhere, or drop their plans for other reasons. The lower HHS figure has enabled administration officials to say that they’re hitting their target.

Frank, the assistant secretary for planning and evaluation, said that Obamacare enrollment is not plateauing, but instead is taking longer to reach a state of “equilibrium” in which the level of enrolled people and uninsured people will remain fairly static. These shifts, he said, have not materialized.

Still, Burwell tried to cast the new projection in a positive light. The remaining uninsured population is younger, more likely to be male, and tend not to know enough about the Marketplace and the financial help that’s available.

When the health-care law was enacted in 2010, winnowing the number of Americans who lack health insurance was one of its main goals. HHS said uninsured individuals “may be more inclined to enroll in coverage” as a result of the tax penalty, which is the larger amount between an individual’s 2.5 percent yearly income or $695, per person – although the fine is $347.50 per child under 18 years old. Just 29 states have chosen to expand Medicaid, with a significant gap in coverage emerging between those and non-expansion states.