Obama Administration Projects Slim Gain for Health-Law Enrollment in 2016

It looks like Obamacare enrollment is hitting a wall.

In a surprisingly pessimistic forecast, the Obama administration predicted on Thursday that health insurance enrollment on the Affordable Care Act’s public marketplaces will only inch up from current coverage levels by the end of 2016.

The HHS projection contrasts with one released by the Congressional Budget Office in March, which suggested 21 million people would be insured via the exchanges by that time. That’s about a million more than expected by the end of this year. “I am not optimistic that we will see more than that”, Dorn said. People who don’t have access to coverage on the job can pick a plan through HealthCare.gov and state-run insurance markets.

More than 80 percent of exchange enrollees, by virtue of their low or moderate incomes, get subsidies that lower the cost of their monthly premiums.

About 17.6 million Americans have gained coverage under the ACA, according to HHS. Surveys show that among the 10.5 million remaining uninsured who are eligible, many are young adults living on very tight budgets.

Earlier estimates assumed a few employers would drop coverage for their employees, who would then sign up through the marketplace.

“But while our audiences may be harder to reach, we’re working smarter to reach them”.

Still, Burwell tried to cast the new projection in a positive light.

Exchange enrollment at year-end 2016 of 10 million individuals “is a strong and realistic goal”, HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell said in a statement accompanying the report.

Holding them back, Burwell said, are concerns about the cost of coverage and a lack of information about available financial aid, which is set on a sliding scale. “Starting November 1, our targeted outreach campaign will reach Americans where they live, work and play to inform them of the opportunity to enroll or re-enroll in coverage”.

As noted, the enrollment decline in employer-sponsored coverage offset nearly all (94 percent) of the net gain in individual-market coverage for the year.

In its enrollment projections, HHS estimates that between 7.3 million to 8.8 million individuals – mostly lower-income Americans eligible for federal premium subsidies – now enrolled in plans offered through the exchanges will select or automatically enroll in exchange plans next year.

The regulations in the Affordable Care Act allow individuals and families to change their health care plans once a year during a three month span called Open Enrollment Period. At the end of 2016, it predicts the number will rise to 10 million.

Enrollment in individual-market policies increased by nearly 4.8 million individuals during 2014.

“We’re going to be getting between 25 and 30 percent of the uninsured” next year, Frank said. “That’s just smart politics”. Those with lower incomes receiver more generous subsidies while those with higher incomes receive less.

He added, “A big wildcard for 2016 is the fact that the individual mandate’s penalties ramp up significantly”. “But you know, Texas is a large place, and there are counties, rural counties, that still have a really high number of uninsured people”.