Exit Polls Split on Outcome of Bihar Assembly Elections

It was only after Prime Minister Narendra Modi clarified government’s stand on reservation ahead of the third phase polling BJP picked up.

Such actions, however, are potent enough to have a great impact on the future course of action in Bihar.

Live results from the Bihar 2015 election along with full exit polls can be found here. “Meanwhile, I am not in the race”.

Apart from the Chanakya poll, all the other exit polls predicted that the JD(U)-led Mahagathbandhan would win by a close margin.

Leaders of both the BJP and the Grand Alliance – the Janata Dal-United of Nitish Kumar and the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad Yadav – claimed they were sure of victory.

Based on the vote share pattern in the 2014 election in Bihar, the BJP alliance needs to add another 6 to 7 percentage point votes over and above its 2014 base of 38% to become totally secure about getting a robust majority – 150 plus seats.

Two exit polls said their data showed the result was too close to call. It gave the BJP alliance a range of 113 to 127 seats and the Grand Alliance of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar 111 to 123 seats.

“The complete backward group of Bihar has voted for us”, he advised the media in Patna. The exit polls, like counting days, are big for all news channels so this was not out of the ordinary. It forecast a mere eighty three seats to the JD-D, the RJD and the Congress. That would pave the way for future critical state elections in Bengal and Assam next year and UP in 2017, in addition to seven other states that would go to polls over the next two years and determine the party’s strength in the Upper House or the Rajya Sabha. It made predictions across all five phases of polls in the state.

“The answer will be known on Sunday when million of votes will be counted… elections were violence free and peaceful and saw more women than men coming out to exercise their franchise”, Subodh Kumar, a middle-aged man, said while sipping tea near a roadside shop. Others are expected to win 4 to 10 seats in the 243-member Assembly. Four to eight seats might go to different events.

If the Grand Alliance started the campaign as an underdog, it began to increasingly look like a victor, largely because Mr. Kumar and Mr. Prasad buried the rivalries of the past and communicated enough positive energy to their party workers to ensure that a majority worked in sync through the campaign.

CNX, which conducted the exit poll for NewsX and India News, gave 130-140 seats for the Nitish-led combine, while restricting NDA to 90-100 seats. Otherwise what was the reason for Rajnath Singh to assert that whether the BJP wins or loses election, Amit Shah will remain BJP president.

Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) contested from six constituencies, making its foray into Bihar.

In all, Joshi visited nearly half of the districts of Bihar during the election campaign and helped organise things for a large number of BJP candidates.