Warming vows not enough

Implementation of the national climate plans prepared by countries ahead of the Paris climate meeting will limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, but a new climate agreement can encourage further action that will be necessary to limit global temperature rise to 2 degree Celsius by 2100, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report. As per scientists, temperature of earth have already risen more than 0.8 degrees C (1.4 degrees F) since the industrial revolution.

Other scientific estimates have varied between 2.7degC and 3.5degC.

In this year’s Emissions Gap report, a summary of which was released Friday, UNEP says the world can still reach the 2-degree target with emissions of 52 billion tons by 2020, which is just slightly below today’s level.

The annual “Emissions Gap” analysis tracks the difference between projected Carbon dioxide pollution, on the one hand, and the levels required to stay under the United Nations 2degC target, on the other.

The report further said that INDCs will likely have benefits beyond the estimated reductions to GHG emission levels as new climate policies and actions are being galvanized by the process.

However, even if all countries’ conditional and unconditional plans for emission cuts are implemented fully, emissions could rise to 54 billion tonnes in 2030, leaving a gap of 12 billion tonnes, the report said.

But as real-world emissions kept rising far beyond that previously suggested level, the environmental authority increased its assessment of the level as governments around the world seek a new accord to fight back global warming.

More than 150 countries have pledged their efforts to climate change, which is a huge number compared to past years.

Speaking on carbon budget, Mr Bhushan said that only 250 billion tonne of carbon budget will be left after 2030.

The ministers will seek to identify areas of possible compromise ahead of the highly-anticipated Paris conference, to be opened by more than 80 heads of state including US President Barack Obama, China’s Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi of India.

That output will have to drop to near zero by 2075 at the latest to stay under 2degC, scientists say.

The UNEP findings bolster a report released last week by the UN’s climate body showing that even if these national carbon-cutting schemes were carried out, humanity will have exhausted two-thirds of its “carbon budget” by 2030. Smith says an “ambition mechanism” could increase climate action by unlocking the financial, technological and capacity building support that developing countries need to do more, while wealthier countries scale up their efforts at home.

According to the United Nations, these INDCs will form the basis of the agreement expected to be reached at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, COP 21, to be held in Paris, France starting at the end of November.