New Iowa poll: Cruz overtakes Trump

A new poll in Iowa shows that Senator Ted Cruz is now leading his first early state according to the Washington Times.

In the poll, by Monmouth University, Cruz was the favorite of 24 percent of respondents, a 14-point jump over the last poll the college released, in October, that had the senator at 10 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 percent.

The apparent contradiction reflects the difficulty Republicans are having navigating the rhetoric of GOP presidential contender Donald Trump, who roiled the race again Monday by calling for a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on”.

House Speaker Rep. Paul Ryan denounced Trump in a Tuesday press conference saying his proposal “is not conservatism and not what the party stands for”.

The Monmouth University poll released shows that Cruz passed up Trump.

The survey of 425 likely Republican caucusgoers and 406 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted December 3rd through 6th.

“The Monmouth poll interviewed a sample drawn from registered voter lists that primarily comprised those who had voted in state-level Republican primary elections in previous election years”, CNN reported. Rubio is second, with 14% support from voters surveyed.

But still, Trump’s lead holds even among only those voters who express the most interest in attending the caucus or the most regular past participation in presidential caucuses. Trump is second among Evangelicals with 18 percent of the vote.

Here are a few of the scores of possible scenarios: Clinton supporters confident of her triumph flock to the Republican primary for an establishment figure, perhaps one of the governors.

It also said that Cruz and Trump had both gained ground since then.

“The difference over the last two or three months each time he comes to the state, it just seems like there’s more excitement and people seem to be starting to understand that they have their champion in this election cycle”, Cruz’s Iowa State Director Bryan English told ABC News in late November.

Christie’s rise came as 50 percent cited national security and foreign policy as most important to their vote. 6 and questioned 552 Iowan who were determined to be likely to go to the Republican caucuses. Cruz has argued he opposes all energy subsidies and wants to help find ways to open more markets to ethanol. A spate of campaign ads might have appeared during those particular polling days, or voters were reacting to comments the candidates made about the San Bernardino attack or some other event during that period. In New Hampshire, which holds the nation’s first primary, the RealClearPolitics average of recent statewide polls puts Kasich at 8%, Bush at 7% and Christie at 6%.