Cruz Takes First-Ever Lead in Early State Poll

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is now topping Donald Trump for the first time in the Republican presidential race in Iowa.

Cruz has a strong edge – 30 percent – among evangelicals, who make up about half of the electorate in Iowa, according to the Monmouth poll. The poll also finds that Cruz is doing particularly well among evangelical voters, as Ben Carson’s popularity among that demographic has fallen.

The Fox News poll of SC released Wednesday showed Trump way ahead in this pivotal early primary southern state with 35 percent, followed far back by Carson at 15 percent, and Cruz and Rubio with 14 percent each. Marco Rubio at 11% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4%.

Cruz leads Trump 24 percent to 19 percent in Iowa, which holds its 2016 caucuses on February 1, 2016. Rand Paul at 4%. Its margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Vander Plaats said it would be up to each GOP candidate to decide their plans going forward, noting that he talked with Huckabee, Santorum and NY entrepreneur Donald Trump in the past two days and planned to contact Cruz to discuss putting “meat on the skeleton” of his Iowa bid with their backing.

Although the comments were met with bipartisan outrage from Trump’s fellow candidates and other politicians and political observers, survey center director Andrew Smith said it is unclear if the remarks will hurt or help Trump among voters in New Hampshire and nationally.

Trump focused on the survey that he won. Carson avoided such condemnations, and told Tapper that if Trump wins the GOP nomination, Republican leaders would “have an obligation to respect the will of the people”.

Since then, as foreign policy and terrorism became more important to Republican voters, Carson’s support diminished.

Most recently, Trump drew intense backlash this week from both Republicans and Democrats with his proposal to temporarily bar nearly all Muslims from entering the United States, including both immigrants and tourists. Trump and Cruz are also almost even when caucusgoers are asked who best represents the values of Republicans like yourself (25% Trump to 22% Cruz, Carson fades 7 points to 18%).

At Trump’s Davenport, Iowa rally on Saturday, Ron Rockwell of Clinton, Iowa said he’s on the fence between Trump and Cruz, but leaning toward Cruz. A third of the Winthrop Poll respondents said terrorism/ISIS/ISIL/terrorists is the top issue, while the economy and immigration (not refugees), at 13 percent and 10 percent respectively, round out the top three issues.