Rand Paul Probably Won’t Qualify For Next Republican Debate

Donald Trump continues to strengthen his position on top of the Republican candidate field, even after controversial comments suggesting Muslims be banned from entering the country. & while the Republican contenders show a reasonably united front against new gun control measures, their potential New Hampshire constituents are rather more open on the difficulty.

The poll was conducted for WBUR by the Boston-based MassINC Polling Group, which surveyed 402 likely voters between December 6 and 8.

The surprise is in who took second place: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

To qualify, Paul needs at least a 3.5 percent average in national polls, or 4 percent in the early voting states of Iowa or New Hampshire.

The New Jersey governor has been among the most frequent visitors to New Hampshire in the year leading up to the primary, and his campaign has worked methodically to cultivate relationships with key players within the state’s Republican establishment. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), and Sen.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has also seen an increase in support compared to the previous poll but still comes in a distant second at 14 percent. However, 87 percent of those polled consider ISIS a “major threat”, compared to 57 and 49 percent for illegal immigration and mass shootings, respectively.

The two candidates who gained more support than Christie’s 4 percentage points are the candidates he’s trailing.

As for favorability among the candidates, Rubio led the pack with a net positive rating of 36 points – 58 percent to 22 percent. If only one additional poll is released in each category by Sunday, Paul would need a relatively ambitious 6 percent in Iowa, 8 percent in New Hampshire or 10.5 percent nationally to qualify.