Study says emissions from fossil fuels may fall in 2015

T he Global Carbon Project (GCP) released its latest data on Monday at the Paris climate talks, showing global carbon emissions have remained the same for the first time over two consecutive years.

In 2015, however, the researchers expect global carbon emissions to decline by 0.6 percent to 35.7 gigatonnes – their central projection from a range of -1.6 percent to +0.5 percent. Thanks mainly to changes in China, the worldwide growth in emissions flattened in 2014 and is set to drop slightly this year, said the study.

So far, more than 180 nations have put forward plans to cut emissions but they put the world on a path to warming anywhere from 2.7C to 3.7C, according to studies.

“Whether a slower growth in emissions will be sustained depends on the use of coal in China and elsewhere, and where new sources of energy will come from”, said Pep Canadell of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation.

“It will need the development of a capacity for disposing of Carbon dioxide on a reasonably large scale, either captured from the air or from emissions from fossil fuels that countries or companies simply can not bring themselves to leave in the ground”, said Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford.

Nevertheless, the researchers were cautious about the findings, saying even if emissions peak in the next couple decades, “we’ll still be emitting massive amounts of Carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels”. Specifically, the researchers are predicting that not only might the growth of Carbon dioxide emissions slow or stall this year, but that there might even be a chance emissions growth would decline by 0.6% in 2015.

The researchers said that steps are required to stabilise and reduce the global carbon dioxide emissions permanently to lower levels.

The reduced coal consumption in China has been found to be the major contributor to the projected reduction in carbon emissions.

The report, Expert Consensus on the Economics of Climate Change, says climate change will begin to have a net negative impact on the global economy very soon. Despite China’s great strides in reducing its emissions, there is still a lot of work to be done.

The private sector may be able to help make up the shortfall, and there is enormous opportunity for green businesses to get involved in helping developing countries’ economies to grow while minimizing carbon emissions. While advocates of greener living have long touted the economic benefits of replacing outdated fossil fuels with eco-friendly upgrades, the undeniable truth was that higher global emissions were linked to economic growth.