GasBuddy Predicts Californians Will Pay More For Gas This Year

“That’s the danger here, is that I love these low gas prices, but I’m anxious in the backdrop of them, oil producers are unhappy and they’re starting to slow-down production, which would then contribute to an era of again higher prices”, said DeHaan.

They estimate the national average for a gallon of gas will drop to $2.28. “The fundamentals of oil remain weak which will contribute to low oil prices for some time, while gasoline demand will likely move lower now with the holidays behind us, putting downward pressure on gasoline prices”.

The retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has been relatively stable at around $2 for the better part of a month.

Those low gas prices are here to stay for 2016. Other states with lower taxes for gasoline “should see very low prices”, Morris said.

Drivers this year are expected to save 17 billion dollars in gas compared to last year.

Drivers should expect the national average to peak around $2.65 to $2.70 a gallon during the spring and fall to close to $2 by the end of the year, with the net result being lower prices, GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst Patrick DeHaan said in a statement.

For the year ahead, GasBuddy’s forecast notes gas taxes at the state level are another variable. “While past history is never a guaranteed indicator of future performance, it does offer clues that are instrumental to short-term and long-term forecasts”. GasBuddy projects that 2016’s peak national average price will occur in May when the range rises to $2.43 to $2.74 and the national average for the month is expected to be $2.63 a gallon.

Prices on the Gulf Coast also benefit from a large concentration of refineries in the region, though hurricanes and severe weather always pose a threat, he said.

Gasoline prices are driven mostly by four factors: oil prices, proximity to refineries, refinery capacity and state taxes and levies.