USDA Surprises With Smaller Yield Estimates

The Dec. 1 wheat stocks figure of 1.738 billion bushels was a five-year high that exceeded market expectations by 40 million bushels. Corn ending stocks are projected 17 million bushels higher at 1.8 billion bushels, stocks remain the highest since 2005-’06.

Sorghum grain production in 2015 is estimated at 597 million bushels, up slightly from the November forecast and up 38 percent from the 2014 total.

USDA also released its grain stocks report Tuesday. With lower supplies, exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1,690 million.

Total projected corn use for 2015/16 is reduced slightly with lower projected food, seed, and industrial use and exports.

Chicago Board of Trade March wheat gained 12-1/4 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $4.81-1/4 a bushel, the strongest percentage increase in almost three months.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released the official annual crop production report today.

USDA left its harvest estimates of the corn and soybean harvests in Brazil and Argentina unchanged.

“The thought was that big crops get bigger and they actually reduced the production for (U.S.) beans and corn and pulled back the yields as well”, said Dax Wedemeyer, analyst with U.S. Commodities.

USDA cut its estimate of the USA corn harvest for the 2015/16 marketing year to 13.601 billion bushels from 13.654 billion, lowering the average yield per acre to 168.4 bushels from 169.3 bushels. The stocks for soybeans went to 440 million from 465 million.

Oil sunflower production was up 47 percent from the prior year, coming in at 42.7 million pounds for 2015. This is down 0.9 bushel from the November forecast and 2.6 bushels below the 2014 average yield of 171.0 bushels per acre.

Corn for grain production is estimated at 13.6 billion bushels, down slightly from the November forecast and down 4% from the 2014 estimate. Soybean production was estimated slightly up from the 2014 estimate, and stored soybeans were up 7% from 2014. A record 3.93 billion bushes were harvested with the average yield per acre estimated at 48 bushels, 0.5 bushels above the 2014 yield.