Trump, Clinton lead new Iowa caucus poll, but races remain volatile

At a Saturday rally in Dubuque, he expressed his usual confidence – “If we win Iowa we can run the table!” – while knocking Cruz, repeating his concerns about the senator being born in Canada and questioning his eligibility to be president.

All that matters in the presidential race for the next 24 hours is who shows up to debate and discuss their choice for president with friends and neighbors in Iowa’s storied caucuses – and historically, only a small fraction bother.

Republican Donald Trump went with straight-up guilt to inspire his legion of fans. Ted Cruz of Texas 5 points behind him. It’s a test of whether the celebrity businessman and political newcomer will be able to transform his record crowds into caucus-goers willing to fearless the cold on Monday night to cast their votes.

Ten Republicans and three Democrats are campaigning in Iowa for their parties’ nominations, but much of the focus has been on the fight between Cruz and Trump and their uneasy relationship with the Republican establishment.

A majority of conservative likely voters say they support either Trump or Cruz, while the same two candidates combine for less than 30% of moderate or liberal primary voters. Marco Rubio is third at 14 percent.

When they are finished, the race will take on a new dynamic and several candidates are expected to drop out altogether. On the eve of the election, Selzer and the Register published what appeared to be an outlier poll that showed Ernst up by seven points. Republican presidential candidate, Sen.

With few details emerging from the campaign, there is only anecdotal evidence gleaned from voters, many of whom still report never having received phone calls from the campaign or guidance on how to caucus.

The State Department says it’s not releasing some emails from Clinton’s correspondence because the information they contain is too classified. “And I just want to very sincerely thank the people of this handsome state for their hospitality, their generosity and for their kindness. You can usually tell by a guy if he means it or not”. John Kasich lands in second place among the moderate or liberal group with 15%, Rubio has 11%, Christie 10% and Bush 9%.

Then Rubio repeated a line he likes to use on the stump: “One of the first things Hillary Clinton will have to do as president is pardon herself”. Once the first set of voters get a say, some of the candidates on the margins are likely to take the hint and step aside.

“I don’t give support simply by quoting the Bible”.

“No, I see it as a hard-earned bump”, he said. “I’m not electing a pastor in chief”. Lee said his Christian beliefs lead him to oppose their hard-line immigration stances – policies that are part of what he labels “callous conservatism”.

Even beating him in the polls in Iowa recently.

For context on just how conservative Sioux County is – in the 2012 general election, around 47 percent of Iowans voted for Romney, but almost 84 percent of Sioux County did. “He’s very entertaining, but this campaign isn’t about that”, Rubio said. Meanwhile, of the 600 to 700 people who attend on Sundays, he knows of only one who supports Trump. The final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, which is considered the most reliable survey on Iowa caucus-goers, makes clear that the race is far from settled.