Trump and Cruz battle for victory in Iowa’s leadoff caucuses

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio speaks to NBC in Iowa ahead of Monday’s caucus.

The results in Iowa may also narrow what has been an unusually crowded Republican field with a number of candidates struggling to achieve the turnout needed to continue. And perhaps counterintuitively, the most moderate candidate (Rubio) and the most conservative candidate (Cruz) are going head-to-head for each other’s weakly committed voters.

“We’ve got a tie ballgame – that’s where we are”, Sanders told volunteers and supporters in Des Moines Monday, imploring them to turn out and caucus. “We can feel it. Our phone is ringing off the hook, 100 [calls] an hour approximately”.

Echoing the conventional wisdom that this is a year for outsiders, the UMass Lowell pollsters discovered that distrust of the government is fueling the success of Sanders and Trump in the state.

A poll released today shows 60 percent of Americans view Donald Trump unfavorably.

“Evangelicals are historically more likely to caucus, and as pollster Ann Selzer said on “Face the Nation” yesterday morning, “[Cruz] can bring [his poll] numbers a lot closer on caucus night with a good turnout among that constituency”.

The billionaire businessman had the support of 28 percent of voters, with Cruz at 23 percent.

Unlike a traditional primary, where voting goes on all day, voting in an Iowa caucus begins at 7 p.m. If he beats Clinton in Iowa, it would be an upset, and he’d head into New Hampshire with even more momentum.

First-time Democratic caucus participants also gave a boost to Bernie Sanders in Iowa, the latest poll showed. Rick Santorum, the last two winners of the Iowa GOP caucuses, can’t escape the low single digits, they could conclude they have no path to the nomination and drop out – a move that would likely help Cruz, who appeals to a similar set of voters.

A loss for Trump would dent his self-identity as a victor and create enormous pressure for a better performance in the next contests – in New Hampshire on February 9 and SC on February 20. Clinton and Sanders are separated by only 3 percentage points, within the margin of error, on the Democratic side.

Clinton, a former secretary of state and U.S. senator, often touts her years of experience in politics, and says she will defend much of Obama’s legacy.

Donald Trump made headlines on January 26 when he announced he was “most likely” skipping the Fox News-hosted GOP debate, the last debate to be held before caucus day.

Once the results of state-level primaries and caucuses are in, each party allocates delegates for participating candidates to a national convention.

Nearly all caucuses are restricted to voters who are either registered Democrats or Republicans. Trump’s announcement of a rally in Little Rock on Wednesday has already stoked speculation that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee could endorse him, and ex-Pennsylvania Sen.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen.

Among Iowa likely Republican caucusgoers, 35 percent say they “would definitely not support” Trump, while 15 percent say no to Cruz. And delegates are awarded through a formula based on how candidates do in precincts all over the state.