Will Britain stay in EU? Markets, bettors put money on yes

Britain is voting Thursday on whether to remain in the European Union in one of the most important national referendums in decades.

As part of his closing speech, he invoked Britain’s popular war-time Prime Minister Winston Churchill, saying, “The greatest privilege of my life is to stand in my office two yards away from where Winston Churchill made that decision to fight on against Hitler in 1940”.

Joan, a woman in her 50s, also said she was planning to vote “Leave” as a way of reining in “uncontrolled immigration” from other parts of the EU.

Spectators have maintained that the result is too close to call.

Also buoying the markets was an opinion poll conducted by the Ipsos MORI firm for the Evening Standard newspaper which suggested the “remain” camp winning by a narrow margin. In the Scottish independence referendum past year, undecided voters swung the result toward remaining part of the UK.

“It’s a hard thing to be undecided about – it’s very tribal”, Mike Crowhurst, who works in educational policy, told DW.

“We can’t support ourselves and I think we should be able to”. A starting point is that no one likes Europe, but it would be worse if we left.

“I’m going to feel British again”, said Diane Booth, a softly-spoken 69-year-old pensioner, adding that she wanted Britain to be self-sufficient so it did not have to rely on European food imports.

After a protracted and polarizing election campaign, many people remain set in their views. As an American citizen (he is a student who moved to the United Kingdom in January), he does not have a vote. “If you have open borders, you have uncontrolled migration from poor countries, people that naturally want to come here but that drives down the wages which hurts the indigenous working class”, he told DW.

The issue also dominated news bulletins far beyond Britain.

Many people, on both sides of the political divide, have been dispirited at the tone of the debate. For many, a nadir was reached when UKIP released a poster heavily reminiscent of Nazi propaganda.

“I think it would actually be containable, and I certainly would not be throwing myself out of a window”, he said.

Polling stations opened from 7am Thursday morning and will remain open until 10pm on Thursday night.

Approximately 45.6 million people were eligible to vote in the referendum, from commonwealth citizens living in the United Kingdom and residents of Gibraltar to British citizens living overseas who were registered to vote in the last 15 years. “I’ll be glad tomorrow when it’s over – well, provided it goes the way I want it to”.

On the Remain side, many people are frustrated that a positive case for European Union membership has not been made.

“I value autonomy”, he said. While the pound has strengthened over recent days, which is a sign of confidence, that doesn’t necessarily indicate a Remain outcome.

While exit polls are not allowed to be published during Thursday’s vote, which closes at 10 p.m. (2100 GMT) some financial companies have reportedly commissioned private exit polling services to help guide their trading.

Using official figures from the Electoral Commission, The Guardian estimates that the combined total given to both sides is around £28m, with Leave receiving £4m more than Remain, primarily from Tory donors.

European Union leaders have warned Britain – the world’s fifth-largest economy – that there would be no turning back from a vote to quit. And “we’ll push through an European Union directive banning foam on beer!”

Market strategist Michael Ingram of BGC Partners said a “leave” vote would shock the markets and cause a “very, very hard day indeed” for the pound.

If it votes to stay, Britain has been promised a special status exempting it from further political integration but European leaders will still have to address a sharp rise in euroscepticism across the continent.

A majority of USA companies chose Britain as a base for its more flexible labor market, the rule of law, creative culture, and the English language, but without European Union access, the appeal seems sombre.