Tropical disturbance develops in eastern Atlantic

It also positions 2016 to be a somewhat above-average Atlantic storm year.

The tropical depression was centered just over 350 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, as of Monday afternoon, and was moving to the west. Fiona weakened a bit over the past 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds at 40 mph (35 kts).

While still very far away, the system is expected to strengthen to a tropical depression later today and possibly become Gaston, the seventh storm of the season.

Neither tropical system now poses a threat to land.

According to the NOAA, 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the category one and category two hurricane days, and an impressive 96% of the category 3, 4, and 5 days occur in the time period from mid-August to mid-October. Right now, it is very disorganized and is just a cluster of thunderstorms, moving west at about 20 miles per hour. Given it’s current location in the eastern Atlantic, almost 3,600 miles away from Fort Myers, it will not be a direct threat to Florida.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm Tuesday, said National Hurricane Center specialist Jack Beven.

Look for this system to become a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It does not appear that this will be a threat to any land masses at this time.

Behind Fiona are a couple of tropical waves that may bear watching.

In fact, September 10 is the “most likely” day of the whole season to have an active tropical system in the Atlantic basin, which puts the most active part of the hurricane season in our sights.

The forecasters estimated the chance of a cyclone forming over the next five days was “medium” at 50 per cent.

Spaghetti plots for Fiona’s projected path are in general agreement that the depression remain in the open Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda through Thursday. Tropical Storm Fiona is about 680 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands.

National Weather Service meteorologist Derrick Weitlich agreed with Feltgen’s assessment it is too early to say whether the storm could impact Florida, where moisture in the atmosphere is expected to increase as the week goes on. Fiona has a chance to strengthen if it is able to hold together into midweek.

Tracking developing showers and storms live on WBRC FOX6 News at Noon. A stalled front will be in this area much of the next week or so & low pressure might try to develop.

These factors can permit storm systems in the tropics to further develop.