Brexit ‘to cost Scottish economy £11.2bn a year’

Asked about a “crisis” in the force at a press conference in Edinburgh, Nicola Sturgeon said: “I don’t think the single force is in crisis”.

The SNP leader hinted that legislation for a second referendum will be unveiled inside a fortnight, but it came as the “perilous” state of Scotland’s public finances are to be unveiled this morning. “Her own government’s figures will show tomorrow that Scotland benefits from a multibillion union dividend”. “The argument that the United Kingdom offers financial security to Scotland no longer holds water”, she said.

Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, said Sturgeon’s analysis of the economic damage caused by Brexit should have been published before the referendum, but the new ministerial post was welcome.

The paper warns Scotland’s GDP is likely to be between £1.7bn and £11.2bn per year lower than it would have been if the United Kingdom does not leave the EU. The cost to the country’s public finances as tax revenues fall could be £1.7-£3.7bn a year. Those who have previously argued that the United Kingdom somehow gives financial security and certainty to Scotland – that argument is bust, frankly.

She added: “I don’t know anybody, apart from folk like Boris Johnson, who has seriously said Brexit is not going to have a seriously bad impact on our economy; it’s not a question of if, it’s a question of how much…” This assessment also underlines the importance of doing everything we can to protect our place in Europe and especially our membership of the single market.

The timing of a new independence vote, however, would hinge on when the UK’s Brexit position becomes clear, she told reporters.

“It is not a statement of an independent Scotland’s opening position, because that would be influenced by a range of things like defence spending and negotiations around debt interest that would affect that”, she said.

“One which no longer sees every issue through the prism of independence and the constitution, but one 100% committed to the job in hand”, she said.

Unionists and opposition politicians have accused the Scottish Government of grandstanding over Brexit to deflect attention from revenue figures due out on Wednesday.

She has already held meetings with European Union leaders on Scotland’s future, while also saying it is “highly likely” that Brexit will in time trigger a second referendum on Scottish independence.

The Scottish Government’s priority should be to work closely with the United Kingdom government to ensure the best deal for Scotland.

Scotland will also be a less attractive location for overseas investors, it says.

The First Minister said the figures were proof of the need to protect Scotland’s relationship with the EU. “Delivering an outcome that achieves that is vital”.

Alastair Cameron, director of the pro-UK organisation Scotland in Union, said the economic hit caused by Brexit would be far outweighed by the damage caused if Scotland were to leave the UK.

“Rather than face up to this challenge, the First Minister has instead reverted to the 2014 referendum playbook by deflecting and obscuring the numbers”, he added.