Trump will pursue ‘regional hegemony’ in South China Sea – Chinese academics

Wismuller Gunter analysts report that just when China’s economy seemed to be stabilizing, Donald Trump’s election as US president poses significant new risks. If it comes into effect, 12 Pacific Rim countries will enjoy free-trade arrangements aimed at boosting their economic partnerships, and it is seen by many as a check to Chinese influence in the region.

This Oct. 17, 2016 file image provided by the U.S. Navy, shows the guided missile destroyer USS Decatur, right, pulling into position behind the Military Sealift Command USNS Matthew Perry, during a replenishment-at-sea, seen from the bridge of the guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance, in the South China Sea. At the same time, the TPP could help open exclusive sectors in places such as Japan, Vietnam and Malaysia, where protectionism, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and ethnic-based affirmative action have restricted USA commercial penetration.

We hope he gets real on trade.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the most viable and best alternative for Asean countries now with the uncertainties surrounding the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

And, not surprisingly, the Associated Press reports that China is moving ahead with “rival free-trade initiatives”.

And Beijing is preparing to step into the vacuum with an unprecedented bid to build a world economy around itself.

That makes APEC “a golden opportunity” for Canada to advance trade ties in Asia, Dade said. TPP was signed in February in view of protecting America’s interests in global trade.

Trudeau met with Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto Saturday night to talk TPP and the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement, given Trump has also vowed to blow up the pact if he doesn’t get it amended to his liking. TPP was part of America’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy, through which Washington wanted to secure its influence in Asia. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims. But the nations sitting across the table have the alternative of signing on with a resurgent China rather than with a retreating America, which Trump has said will pull back from overseas in order to rebuild the United States as he “makes America great again”. He threatened to classify China a currency manipulator and enforce import tariffs on Chinese imports.

Noland suggested that the Mexican government is also working on how to respond to potential trade barriers of the USA, arguing they will not be as effective as China’s missiles but can undermine Trump’s policies on illegal immigration.

In the compromise scenario, Trump will not quash the proposed FTAs, but will redefine their basic terms, which Canada and Mexico, the European Union and Asia Pacific might ultimately consider a lesser evil than full termination.

While US military spending had steadily fallen since 2011, there was an increase in the proposed US military outlays in the Asia-Pacific and in Europe for next year, it said. As Abe pointedly noted prior to the APEC meeting, RCEP includes most Asian countries as well as Australia and New Zealand, but not the United States.

The U.S. may soon find itself with nearly no influence in the region, politically, economically, and militarily.

Leaders of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito agreed on Monday that the current Diet session, which was set to end on November 30, would be extended by two weeks to run through to December 14. On his visit to the United States a year ago, he placed an order for 300 aircraft worth $38 billion.

The pact will promote the economic growth of Asia and the Pacific region, which will bear fruit in the United States as well.

For his part, Trump wants to prevent Chinese imports from disadvantaging domestic United States workers.

“Over the past decade China has displaced the U.S.as the main trading partner in country after country in Latin America as demand for the region’s soybeans, oil and iron ore fueled the fastest growth in decades”. In historic decline, Washington no longer has the economic muscle to lay down the law in Asia or anywhere else and is compelled to resort to military means. For countries like Canada with carefully negotiated links to both superpowers, this is a delicate moment requiring considerable care. “If you face them with a military that is modern, gigantic, overwhelming and unbelievably good at conventional and asymmetric warfare, they may challenge it, but I doubt it”.

Rather than rely on the traditional “hub and spoke” model of US engagement in Asia that focuses on bilateral relationships and alliances, the TPP is meant to support a more integrated and overlapping diplomatic and economic network – led by the United States – that connects like-minded countries in the region.