College Football Playoff Musings

In addition to the Michigan-Ohio State showdown, the Washington-Washington State, Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, Clemson-South Carolina and Alabama-Auburn rivalry games will also play key roles in determining who gets into the playoff. O’Korn transferred to MI previous year after starting 16 games at Houston over his freshman and sophomore seasons. But even if Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes may not reach the Big Ten championship game because of a 24-21 loss to Penn State on October 22. We know this year that it thinks the Big Ten is, at the top, the most competitive conference, with four teams in the current top seven. The safest seems to be Ohio State, but even some argue that they don’t belong in unless they win a conference championship.

Here are some thoughts on the fourth set of rankings that were released by committee chair Kirby Hocutt and Co. earlier on Tuesday evening. Both teams have a record of 10-1 on the season, and sit in the top four in the CFP rankings.

Last week: Beat Chattanooga 31-3. Berths in that game will be determined Saturday. If nearly unthinkable, Alabama could lose to Auburn or Florida, if not both. Running the table would ensure the Crimson Tide and Tigers get in.

Ohio State has won 11 of the last 12 meetings with MI, including the series only 1-2 matchup in 2006. Woodson returned a punt 78 yards for a score, sprinting up the same sideline — Ohio State’s — and into the same end zone that Howard did to help No. 1 MI beat No. 4 Ohio State 20-14 en route to a national championship. The Orange Bowl then chooses the next highest-ranked team from the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame. With a nod to the Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama, and also the clash between Florida and Florida State, this weekend is all about #3 MI at #2 Ohio State.

The committee has already shown it thinks the Buckeyes are a better team by keeping them ranked ahead of Penn State in spite of the Nittany Lions’ 24-21 win over Ohio State on October 22, but because Penn State also lost to Pitt, their resumes aren’t comparable.

When asked directly if the separation between Ohio State and Penn State was small, given that the Nittany Lions beat the Buckeyes, Hocutt directly said “it was not”. O’Korn was just 7 of 16 passing for 59 yards in last week’s win over Indiana. Michigan’s offense is going to struggle with QB issues while the Ohio State defense may not be able to be its usual self without its powerful rushing attack. The Big Ten has four teams in the top seven of this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, highlighted by Ohio State at No. 2, MI at No. 3 and Wisconsin at No. 6. Michigan’s only win in the last decade came in 2011.

However, the only CFP rankings that matter are the ones that will be released December 4, after all the conference championship games are played.

Clemson (10-1, 7-1 ACC): Clemson hasn’t cruised this season, but the Tigers are poised to win a tough ACC. Clemson must avoid an upset against SEC rival SC this weekend though. Fine. But wins and losses have to matter – a whole lot – in a 12- or 13-game season. The Tigers have relatively easy games remaining against SC and, in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game, either Virginia Tech or North Carolina.

The Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual gets the Pac-12 champ, which in this case would be No. 5 Washington.

Other options. There are alternate Pac-12 champions: No. 9 Colorado (9-2) and No. 13 Southern California (8-3) could find themselves in the title game. They would fall behind Wisconsin, and then a Big 12 champion, Clemson and Washington all have the edge.