In Netherlands, at least, liberal democracy trumps populism

European leaders heaved a sigh of relief on Thursday after the Dutch voted Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberal party back into power ahead of the far-right, with all eyes turning to polls later this year in France and Germany.

Most polling stations were to open Wednesday at 0630 GMT, and close at 2000 GMT with exit polls expected shortly after. “It was also an evening where the Netherlands, after Brexit and the American elections, said ‘whoa” to the wrong sort of populism.

After opinion polls in the USA and the United Kingdom misread the presidential election and the Brexit referendum, sampling here, by contrast, accurately reflected an early lead for Mr Wilders followed by a gradual resurgence for Mr Rutte, consolidated by the diplomatic row with Turkey.

Wilders had vowed to “de-Islamise” the Netherlands in his one-page election manifesto and said he would close borders to immigrants from Muslim nations. “And Rutte is not rid of me yet”, he said. That radical platform goes too far for mainstream parties, but many have moved to the right in an attempt to appeal to Wilders voters.

The vote has been overshadowed by tensions with Turkey and a debate about Dutch identity and how to integrate many migrants in this this low-lying country of 17 million people, parts of which hunker below sea level.

Polls over the months have shown Wilders’ party getting a strong momentum in the country. A lot of voters have chosen to give their trust to another party, and we have to respect that’. “Now we’re second. Next time we’ll be number one”.

“We were the 3rd largest party of the Netherlands”.

“Let’s wait and see what the result will be”, he said.

Rutte’s center-right VVD party took 33 out of 150 seats in the lower house of the Dutch parliament.

Mr Rutte has spoken of a “zero chance” of working with Mr Wilders’ PVV, and will look instead to the Christian Democrats and D66, which are both pro-EU.

If far-right Geert Wilders is looking for somebody to blame for his disappointing showing in the Dutch election, he could point to a couple of possible candidates: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Rutte himself took an increasingly tough line on immigration in his campaign to try to beat Wilders. The last general election, held on September 12, 2012, did not result in a new government until November 5.

The election was seen as the first of three big tests this year of anti-establishment sentiment in the European Union with France and Germany also set to go to the polls.

The vote is the first to follow two populist earthquakes past year: the election of Donald Trump in the United States and Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.

“He does not represent a populist wave”.

Other polls suggest the riots have strengthened the anti-immigration vote though and the other parties (a remarkable 28 parties in total) could also do well, leaving Dutch politics somewhat fragmented.Today’s result is likely in any case to be followed by lengthy coalition negotiations. Marine Le Pen’s Front National Party in France now is now top polling at 26.5 percent, according to IfoP-Fiducial.

As victor, Prime Minister Mark Rutte must try to form a coalition with them.

Wilders’ PVV will have a third more seats in parliament than before, but is still well below a 2010 high of 24 seats.

The Netherlands is a fractured political environment and is based on proportional representation, which means a lot of parties get to represent themselves in the final forming government.