Brazil poised for Lula appeal verdict

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks at the metallurgical trade union while the Brazilian court decides on his appeal against a corruption conviction that could bar him from running in the 2018 presidential race, in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil January 24, 2018.

All eyes are on the southern Brazilian city of Porto Alegre this week where judges are hearing an appeal against former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s sentence of nearly 10 years in prison for corruption and money laundering.

Lula’s sentence was increased from nine and a half years to 12 years and a month.

The stakes are huge and thousands of Lula supporters and opponents have camped out in this southern city awaiting the ruling.

Da Silva, a 72-year-old leftist politician commonly known simply as “Lula”, was convicted last July on charges ranging from money laundering to accepting more than $1 million in kickbacks.

Ahead of the ruling, Lula said he would continue fighting “for the dignity of the Brazilian people” until he died.

Others expressed concern over the increasingly bitter polarisation of Brazilian politics.

While nobody knows which way the judges are going to rule, one thing is clear: whatever their decision on Wednesday, Brazil will be divided. That being said, it does not close them off completely.

“Lula’s candidacy would add uncertainty at a time when the economy is starting to show signs of life”, said Eugenio Aleman, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. The decision could prevent da Silva from running in this year’s presidential election and even potentially end the career of the enduringly popular politician. The court’s verdict will not only determine Lula’s political future but also the course of the presidential and parliamentary election. All along, he has maintained he is innocent and that the charges against him are politically motivated.

Lula’s lawyers, Cristiano Zanin Martins and Valeska Teixeira Zanin Martins, released a joint statement within hours of the ruling, saying: “President Lula has been subjected to a political prosecution and conviction”.

A second judge, Leandro Paulsen, agreed with that understanding but considered an aggravating circumstance the fact that Lula had operated as guarantor “of a scheme that emptied the coffers of Petrobras”.

Helicopters will fly over the court building, while ships are being deployed to protect it on a nearby river.

That would radically alter the political landscape of Brazil ahead of a campaign in which Lula is the early favorite, with 36 percent of voter preferences according to pollster Datafolha.

“My dear Lula, Diego is with You”, wrote Maradona in Portuguese.

Lula is unlikely to give up his fight for the presidency.

While asserting their client’s innocence, Lula’s lawyers have demanded the appeal court throw out the conviction by lower court judge and anti-corruption crusader Sergio Moro, which stemmed from a bribery case involving a beach-front apartment.

That would improve the odds of a more centrist, market-friendly candidate winning this year’s race and continuing austerity policies to reduce a budget deficit run up by Lula’s impeached successor, Dilma Rousseff.