Iran Says ‘will Not Stay’ in Nuclear Deal if US Walks Away

The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), first saw the documentation as early as 2005.

Trump welcomed Netanyahu’s presentation Monday, claiming it showed that he was “100% right” in criticizing the 2015 pact.

Speaking on Fox News Tuesday, Netanyahu said Israel had obtained the documents in February and shared all of the information with the U.S. “It was built on Iran’s lies”, he said.

There were, he said, 55,000 pages of evidence and a further 55,000 files on 183 CDs relating to a secret nuclear weapons programme, dubbed Project Amad.

Iran’s ambassador to Britain said Tehran will consider walking away from the nuclear deal if the United States withdraws from the agreement, in an interview aired Wednesday.

The Israeli prime minister delivered a televised address on Monday, accusing Iran of violating the multilateral nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries in 2015. But on that score his evidence is thin.

Defying Western demands, Iran has repeatedly said it has no intention of reducing its imprint in Middle East affairs and its missile capabilities, which it has said are defensive in nature and have nothing to with nuclear activity covered by the deal. In exchange, Iran was relieved of crippling economic sanctions.

Trump argues Tehrans long-range missile program should be viewed as part and parcel of a nuclear weapons program.

But the tone has changed, with leaders now suggesting that Iran wouldn’t have much incentive to remain bound to the accord if the USA left with the intention to rally its allies in the region and reimpose sanctions. In February, Dan Coats, director of national intelligence, stated that “the JCPOA has extended the amount of time Iran would need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon from a few months to about one year” and that it “has also enhanced the transparency of Iran’s nuclear activities”. As my German interlocutor put it, ‘Trump must be told that he can not have his cake and eat it’.

British Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security, Federica Mogherini, have added their voices to the strong chorus calling for Trump to keep the deal. With Saudi Arabia and Iran already fighting a proxy war in Yemen, jostling for influence in the Syrian civil war and the Qatar crisis, Riyadh has pulled back no punches on the fact that if Iran sets on a path towards nuclear armament again, Saudi Arabia will walk down the same road. “There are substantial military Iranian military assets in Syria”. While some restrictions ease after seven years, the key elements that prevent Iran from enriching the uranium needed for a bomb remain until 2030. That’s an argument for strengthening it. Zarif went on to reiterate that his nation will not “renegotiate or add onto” the deal, as French President Emmanuel Macron suggested during his visit to the US last week.

“The Iranian challenge is a serious challenge”, Eyal said.

“It’s worth a European push to keep the Iranians on board with the deal, but it’s going to be extremely hard”, says Ms. Geranmayeh. But Trump seems to be committed to pulling out of the agreement, despite European efforts to dissuade him.

But has Trump thought about what comes next?

On Tuesday Netanyahu told CNN that “nobody” sought a conflict with the Islamic Republic, a prospect seen by some as a possible result of the deal’s collapse.

Among other things, a plan B would offer Iran economic relief if the USA were to re-impose sanctions, conditional on Iran’s continued compliance with the JCPOA; and it would provide the basis for a larger strategy of engaging with Iran and other stakeholders to de-escalate regional conflicts. Iran stands firm in the face of futile attempts and bullying.