World Population Set to Cross 11 Billion in 2100

According to UN, world population growth will continue in this century and in 2050, population of the world will increase from 7.3 billion people to 9.7 billion and it will reach 11.2 billion at the end of the century.

Fertility rates – the average number of children born per woman – have declined globally but they are not decreasing as fast in Africa as on other continents, said John Wilmoth, director of the UN Population Division in New York.

Population growth is expected by be highest in Africa where a higher fertility rate and a minimal use of birth control are expected to produce a population of 3.4 billion people by the end of this century.

Germany, current 2.9 to projected 1.4 China, current 7.1 to projected 1.4 Mexico, current 8.7 to projected 1.4 Bangladesh, current 11.2 to 1.6.

According to these statistics, Africa, now sitting at a “2.55 percent” annual population growth is most likely to manifest astonishingly high patterns, accounting for more than half of the surge over the next three decades.

Nigeria, now Africa’s most populous country, is on track to quadruple its population from 182 million to 752 million by 2100.

Africa’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been in decline over the last decade, but it is still only a quarter of the decline rate experienced in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean during the 70s.

Experts predict such rapid growth will boost pollution, make resources scarce and fuel unemployment, poverty, crime and political unrest. The UN expects that the ratio in the US will fall to 1.9 from 4.0 workers for every retired individual. Wilmoth said although there is considerable uncertainty about these future trends, there is a 90% chance Nigeria’s population will exceed 439 million people in 2100, which is almost 2.5 times its current size.

Its population is expected to peak around the middle of the century at 5.3 billion, and then decline to 4.9 billion people by the end of the century. These had the world population more or less increasing as it did through the 20th century without slowing, leaving us with 16 billion in the same timeframe.

Only five countries Niger, Somalia, Nigeria, Gambia and Angola are projected to have a PSR above 5.0 in 2100.

Niger is expected to have the highest PSR by the end of the century at 6.5. It would cost about .5 billion a year to provide modern contraceptives to all African women between the ages of 15 and 49 who are now unprotected, and unless a system is put into play, the population growth is inevitable.

These results have important policy implications for national governments.

Developing countries with young populations but lower fertility-such as China, Brazil and India-face the prospect of substantial population aging before the end of the century.