World population likely to surpass 11 billion in 2100

Wilmoth, the director of the United Nations (UN) Population Division, told a session focused on demographic forecasting at the 2015 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM 2015) in Seattle, that the population could surge to 9.7 billion by 2050 before topping out at between 9.5 and 13.3 billion people in 2100.

Africa’s current population of 1.2 billion is expected to explode to between 3.4 billion and 5.6 billion by the end of this century. Presently, the population of the continent is 4.4 billion.

His presentation, “Populations Projections by the United Nations”, outlined several projections of population growth around the world, as well as its underlying effects, such as scarcity of resources and fuel, unemployment, poverty, crime and political unrest, according to The Daily Mail.

Population growth will be driven primarily by Sub-Saharan Africa, which now sits at around 1.2 billion and could rise as high as 5.6 billion.

Billions of people are expected to join the earth by the year 2100: At a rate of approximately 1.5 million new people each year, the world is expected to grow by a total of 40 percent. The growth is due to persistent high levels of fertility and the recent slowdown in the rate of fertility decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. will expand from 322 million people today to 450 million by 2100.

It appears declining fertility rates that have long plagued countries like Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, have stalled.

Also part of the report from the United Nations was the potential support ratio (PSR) of each country, which is arrived at by dividing the number of people aged 20 to 64 by the number of people aged 65 and over.

There is still a significant amount of uncertainty attached to the numbers, but Wilmoth said there is a 90 percent chance Nigeria’s population will exceed 439 million people by 2100. The population right now is 7.2 billion.

Only five countries are projected to have a PSR above 5.0 in 2100 and these include Niger, Somalia, Nigeria, Gambia and Angola.

In the US, the PSR is expected to fall from 4.0 to 1.9 by the end of the century, with Germany falling from 2.9 to 1.4, China from 7.1 to 1.4, and Mexico from 8.7 to 1.4. Rapid population growth can exacerbate existing problems, which means that governments should step in with programs that may help lower fertility rates. The new projection suggests these countries need to invest some of the benefits of their demographic dividend in the coming decades toward provisions for the older population of the future such as social security, pensions and health care.