Strong El Niño Could Mean Warm Winter For Chicago Area

The federal government said a strong El Nino could last through next spring, increasing the chances of a warmer winter in Iowa.

This El Nino is “significant and strengthening”, with the potential to become the most powerful ever recorded, according to the latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center yesterday.

Forecasters are warning California could be hit by the strongest El Nino season on record later this year.

Since 1950, the strongest El Nino episodes, based on the Oceanic Nino Index, occurred in the winters spanning 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982, and 1997-98.

Analysts are factoring the El Nino into their natural gas price forecasts.

“We don’t know if it will go away”, he said.

So what’s the prospect of a prolonged El Nino in the West mean for the Northern Plains and the Red River Valley?

Rainfall will probably not increase in the Pacific Northwest states of Oregon and Washington, which are also suffering from droughts, although they could experience higher temperatures like much of the northern United States, Keeney said. Most folks around Lake Tahoe saw unusual amounts of thunderstorm activity during the month.

Some forecasters have said the El Niño could produce the worst storms parts of the West Coast have seen in decades.

Climatologists are putting greater bets on an El Nino and extending its likelihood into next spring. Torrential warm winter storms will help fill dams, but much of the water could run off to the ocean, particularly if dams are nearing full capacity at the time.

“The correlations between precipitation and El Nio are far from flawless”, said Kevin Werner, NOAA’s director of western region climate services.

California’s state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that only half the time when there have been big El Ninos has there been meaningfully heavy rains.

“This El Nino will be a nice down payment on drought relief, but will not be a drought buster”, Patzert predicts.