El Nino could be strongest in modern history

An El Nino some experts say appears to have already influenced weather in the Reno-Tahoe area looks very likely to hold through the winter and could rival some of the strongest on record.

The latest El Nino/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion said that there is a greater than 90 percent chance El Nino will persist through the winter and a 85 percent chance it will hang on into early spring of 2016. In the United States, a split in the winter jet stream is predicted. The waters of the Eastern Pacific are heating up and the steady build-up signals a strong El Nino event this fall, with some calling it a Super El Nino. However, they noted that the event is not as big as the one that occurred in 1997-98 causing flooding and mudslides in California. The x-axis (on the bottom) is days before the start of to the completion of an El Nino cycle. Since 1958, there have been seven El Nino systems – three wet, three dry and one average.

“We certainly wouldn’t want people to think that, “Gee, because it’s an El Niño this year, it’s going to be wet and therefore we can stop conserving water”, Jeanine Jones, the California Department of Water Resources” deputy drought manager, said in July. “At this point there’s no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day”.

In St. Louis the Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service, Wes Browning agrees the El Nino that is forming is historic and he explains what it could mean for Missouri and the rest of the Midwest.

The four-year drought event has left the central Sierra Mountains with 71.3 inches less of precipitation than normal, a shortage that would take 2.5-3 times the average annual precipitation to achieve full recovery in one year. “This is not a direct effect of El Nino, it’s more of a direct effect of global warming and climate change”. But Werner said precipitation will be critical to getting California – and other parts of the western U.S. now in drought status – some relief.

This year’s El Nino is being called a Godzilla, as it is projected to bring storms even wetter and potentially more damaging than those of almost 18 years ago.

While some areas struggle with drought, El Nino is bringing rain and floods to Chile and Argentina, Reuter said.