Tropical depression Kilo could hit Hawaii as hurricane

This continues to make the intensity forecast tricky for forecasters.

A new tropical system, named Kilo, has taken shape in the central Pacific and could impact Hawaii by next week as a hurricane, depending upon the track.

The hurricane center says Kilo could regain strength, becoming a tropical storm by Sunday night and a hurricane by Thursday. “We have very weak wind shear”, said Evans. There is still a possibility that Kilo might not be able to reorganize and maintain deep convection at its center. While surprising, it is not unheard of in the Central North Pacific Basin.

At that time, Kilo’s center was located near latitude 12.7 north…longitude 151.7 west. That puts the center of Kilo about 535 miles (860 km) south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and 720 miles (1,160 km) southeast of Honolulu. It developed in the south and is approaching the islands from the left.

Kilo is moving west-northwest at 17 miles per hour (28 km/hr).

By that point, Kilo should already be affecting Hawaii, especially the northern island of Kauai. At this time, no coastal watches or warnings are in effect.

If the storm then drifts easterly at midweek, as some forecasts suggest, Kilo could threaten Kauai and Niihau, a smaller, less populated island at the westernmost end of Hawaii’s inhabited island chain. This tropical moisture interacting with island terrain will produce localized, intense and slow moving downpours that may lead to flash flooding.

Trade winds will turn southeasterly and weaken over the weekend. In fact, we could see locally heavy showers as early as Saturday. And remember the ground is likely to already be quite saturated.

Sea surface temperatures south of Hawaii are extremely warm, as high as 86 degrees and running 4.5 degrees above average – fairly typical for this region during a strong El Nino year. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest and decrease in forward speed on Monday.

The National Weather Service is asking anyone expecting to be in or near the main Hawaiian islands through the next week to pay close attention to this developing situation.