Tropical Storm Erika heads toward the Caribbean

As Danny proved, the forecast beyond 48 hours is subject to significant change. This storm formed on the heels of what was once Hurricane Danny. Erika then continues to track WNW through the weekend and is expected to intensify to hurricane status Sunday afternoon. The storm is heading west at 20 miles per hour and could slow further in the coming days.

Erika is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning as it moves near the Bahamas. Over the weekend Erika could strengthen into a hurricane.

“There is a lot of uncertainty”, Kottlowski said. The longest it takes for that turn the more of a threat Erika could be to the Southeast coastline. Over the next couple of days, Erika should be steered west-northwestward on the southern side of a subtropical ridge. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 miles per hour (45 kph). That makes Erika a storm to watch for everyone in the Caribbean and coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. Atlantic Coast.

The forecast computer models tried to separate it from another route after Erika reaches the Leeward Islands.

Another public advisory will be issued at 11 a.m. today. National Hurricane Center forecasts typically follow a consensus of the models.

After showing some disorganization earlier in the day, NHC forecasters say Erika has regained some composure and is beginning to look more impressive. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the centre.

A tropical storm warning remained in effect for Antigua, Barbuda Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and a tropical storm watch was in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten.

There’s a new tropical storm in the Atlantic, and this one has a track that those in the United States may need to watch.