Erika forecast track shifts further away from Florida coast

After spinning west across the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Erika is finally ready to pay a visit to the islands. Cloud tops around Erika’s center were near -63F/-53C, indicating strong thunderstorms.

The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday morning raised its watch over the islands of St. Martin and St. Barthélemy to a warning, meaning that the storm could hit anytime within the next 36 hours.

Early Wednesday morning Erika’s Maximum sustained winds were near 40 miles per hour (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Last week the season’s first hurricane, Danny, rapidly dissipated as the storm reached the Caribbean islands.

Since it formed on Monday afternoon, Erika had been speeding along at about 20 miles per hour, but the storm’s forward movement was expected to slow further today.

The storm is expected to be near South Florida by Monday, according to James Franklin, chief hurricane forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

More immediately, Erika may drop 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters) of rain across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Friday. Maximum sustained winds in the storm are estimated at 45mph.

After three days, as the hurricane approaches the Bahamas, the Hurricane Center says that the upper-level environment is forecast to become more conducive for development and all of the guidance, including the global models, show intensification. “Unlike Danny, Erika is much larger and has a large moisture envelope and will be dealing with far less wind shear from the el Nino jet stream”.

The Florida State Emergency Operations Center was partially activated on Wednesday as officials monitored the storm.

To check this, open Storm Shield, go to the settings, manage weather alerts, and make sure the appropriate alerts are checked under “Hurricane and Tropical”, “Coastal”, “Marine” and “Wind”.

In Haiti, which lies just west of the Dominican Republic on the island of Hispaniola, authorities warned locals to expect Erika’s wrath off the north coast Friday or Saturday.