AM Friday Update: Danny Now a Cat 2 Hurricane

At 5 a.m., the center of the Category 1 storm was located about 985 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Danny late Friday afternoon. Danny would then enter warm open waters of the Atlantic south of the Bahamas, where it could find more favorable conditions with reduced wind shear and less dry air.

Tropical storms Ana, Bill and Claudette formed earlier in the year but never reached hurricane strength.

The hurricane’s maximum sustained winds early Friday had increased to near 85 miles per hour (140 kph). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles.

However, Danny’s future remains very uncertain. A particularly interesting question that only time will answer: can Danny somehow navigate the obstacles of dry air, wind shear, and mountainous islands and slip closer to North America? NHC forecasters note that small hurricanes tend to have higher fluctuations in strength.

After hitting the islands, forecasters said Danny could continue on toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic by the middle of next week.

So many “what ifs?” – a textbook example of why extended-range tropical weather forecasting is so hard.