Candidates engage in final frenzy to get supporters to turn out

A deeper analysis of the numbers reveals Clinton holds leads among voters 65 and older, Catholics and moderates, while the liberal Vermont Senator does best among those under 35, first-time caucus-goers and political independents.

Donald Trump has a five-point lead on Texas Sen.

He says he doesn’t get excited about the polls because of the ever-changing nature of the caucuses, but noted that his competition, namely Ted Cruz, is noticing his recent spike in support.

The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll gives the billionaire businessman 28% of likely GOP caucus-goers, with Cruz at 23%. Sen.

The second question is whether someone places a strong third on the Republican side.

Just 72 percent of Granite State Democratic voters have a favorable view of Clinton, down 11 points since December, while 89 percent view Sanders favorably. Republicans cast secret ballots; Democrats gather in candidate affinity groups and then reshuffle if some voters stood for a candidate who does not have enough support to be viable.

With just 10 days left before New Hampshire voters go to the polls, a Clinton loss in Iowa could seal her fate in New Hampshire and hand her back-to-back losses in the crucial opening contests.

Cruz also celebrated the poll while speaking to reporters Sioux City, Iowa.

On the Republican side, however, the Bloomberg/Register poll suggested a different story. His campaign quickly sent out a fundraising email to supporters soon after the results were made public.

“Please come out and caucus for my father!”, daughter Ivanka Trump told the crowd. He says if you can’t do that, don’t speak.

“Trump is leading with both the inner core of the caucus universe and the fringe – that’s what any candidate would want”, said veteran Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the survey. The rest have positive ratings below 50%.

Iowa and New Hampshire are notoriously unpredictable, and their outcomes will propel some candidates onward, and see others drop from the field. Tom Henderson, chairman of Polk County’s Democratic Party, told Reuters that Iowans look at it “as a great privilege and a great gift” and said that the residents take the task very seriously. On the night of the caucuses that year, the Iowa Republican Party initially declared Mitt Romney the victor.

In other cases – such as the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that year – the nomination is contested until the final states vote. And in 2012, her poll noted the late surge by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum – faded as the race stretched on. Republican John Kasich already had decamped to New Hampshire Sunday, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush scheduled to follow Monday afternoon, hours before the caucuses start.