Carbon emissions shrink in 2015

“Unlike past periods with little or no emissions growth, global gross domestic product (GDP) grew substantially in both years”, they wrote.

A new report from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) indicates carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.6 per cent this year; even with strong economic growth. “We will probably still maintain a lower growth rate of emissions for maybe years to come”, he said. If 2015 plays out as the research suggests, this would be the first time there’s been a decline during a time of global economic growth.

The study, led by William Kolby Smith, a Luc Hoffman Institute postdoctoral fellow working with IonE’s Global Landscapes Initiative and the Natural Capital Project, found that global plant growth has indeed increased over the past 30 years, but not as much as expected given the change in atmospheric Carbon dioxide concentrations.

The report is likely to provide a psychological lift to negotiators at this week’s climate talks in Paris, where diplomats from more than 190 countries are seeking to forge a global agreement on reducing emissions of from fossil-fuel burning.

Prof Le Quere told the BBC: “To deal with climate change we need emissions to go to zero – and we are now talking about zero growth and not zero emissions – so we are still a long, long way from that”.

“If most other countries were to follow South Africa’s approach, global warming would exceed 3-4°C”, research group Climate Tracker said. “This is because energy needs for growing economies still rely primarily on coal, and emissions decreases in some industrial countries are still modest at best”, Le Quere said, in the statement. Debate rages over how much the country actually pollutes, however.

The researchers said any continued slow growth of annual Carbon dioxide output will depend on the use of coal in China and in other countries, and if more renewable sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar are used to produce energy.

But that’s not to say we can all give ourselves a big pat on the back.

The study said declining coal use in China has driven down emissions around the world.

As negotiations enter their final days, the scientists have said their work highlights the need to drive down greenhouse gas emissions quickly.

“After sustained emissions growth over the past decade, China’s emissions growth slowed to 1.2% in 2014 and is expected to decline by about 4% in 2015”.

Even if global emissions haven’t peaked, there’s no disputing that 2015 is one for the history books.

The new report, titled “Reaching Peak Emissions”, was published on December 7 in the journal Nature Climate Change, with detailed data published simultaneously in Earth System Science Data. Their study shows a almost 4 percent drop in emissions for the first eight months of the year when compared to the same time last year.

From the beginning of the summit, the country has insisted that rich countries must take most of the responsibility for climate change and foot the hefty bill for damage suffered by poor countries as a result of global warming. The IEA said there had been only three times in the past 40 years when emissions had remained flat or fallen – the early 1980s, 1992 and 2009 – with each period corresponding to an economic downturn.

But he warned that India could be following the same high-growth, high-carbon path that China started down in the 1990s, when its emissions were less than a quarter of what they are today.