CBO: ObamaCare Repeal Would Result in Millions More Uninsured

It estimates that the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $337 billion between 2017 and 2026.

“If this bill were to become law, CBO projects 14 million Americans who have gained coverage in recent years could lose it in 2018”. The figures wrecked havoc on the government’s plan, but a new report shows that a White House analysis of the GOP plan had estimated an even higher number. It would contribute to one in five Americans being uninsured.

The savings coming from the American Health Care Act, which was introduced March 6 and already passed two key House committees, largely come from a reduction in the outlays for Medicaid and the elimination of Obamacare subsidies for nongroup health insurance. “Repeal-and-replace [of Obamacare] is a big transfer of wealth from the lowest-income Americans to the highest-income Americans”, Edward D. Kleinbard, a professor at the University of Southern California law school and former JCT chief of staff, told the New York Times. After 2018, CBO estimates that average premiums would actually drop by 10 percent by 2026 compared to current law. However, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that in most parts of the country the individual insurance market will remain stable whether or not Obamacare is repealed. Much of the increase would be from changes in Medicaid enrollment as states end Obama’s expansions of eligibility. That could inspire some people to look outside of their jobs for coverage. The difference would grow to 21 million in 2020, which is when the Republicans’ massive overhaul of Medicaid would kick in, and then to 24 million in 2026. As a healthy person, prior to the ACA I was considering a catastrophic health insurance plan that would have cost $5,000 a year and provided far worse coverage than that provided under the ACA.

While the number of uninsured Americans would immediately climb, the trajectory for premiums is more complicated.

The report also finds that individual health insurance premiums would increase until 2020, followed by a decrease, and higher deductibles. “The fact of the matter is they are going to be able to a coverage policy that they want for themselves and for their family”. Obamacare doesn’t offer premiums subsidies for households that earn more than 400 percent of the poverty line.

Importantly, that doesn’t mean that everyone’s premiums would fall. Currently, insurers are only allowed to charge older customers three times what they charge younger individuals.

A 40-year-old making $68,200 in 2026 would pay $6,500 under Obamacare; with Trumpcare’s tax credit, they’d pay just $2,400 for an insurance plan that was only slightly less comprehensive. For fiscal year 2016, the total federal budget deficit was $587 billion. The American Health Care Act (AHCA), which rolls back significant portions of Obamacare while keeping some of its more popular provisions, has been taking flak from lawmakers and advocacy groups from the left and right alike.