CFP Scenarios 2015: How Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio

If Alabama and Clemson win, they join Oklahoma and the Iowa-Michigan State victor in the playoff. Clemson is affiliated with the Orange Bowl through the ACC, is closer in proximity to South Florida and just played at Sun Life Stadium on October 24 (handing Miami a 58-0 loss).

Waiting in the wings are sixth-ranked Ohio State and seventh-ranked Stanford. With the teams sitting at No. 4 and No. 5, respectively, in this week’s playoff rankings, neither is in danger of being passed after a win.

Let’s just get this out of the way. Ohio State could get a chance to defend its championship if Clemson or Alabama get tripped up in their conference title games.

The Gators have enjoyed a resurgence in Jim McElwain’s first season, but the offense has been punchless since QB Will Grier was suspended. The Crimson Tide and Florida will meet in the SEC Championship game next weekend. The perpetually overhyped Irish fell to #8 this week, just one spot behind the team that ousted them from the top 4, Stanford. Wins at Baylor, Tennessee and Oklahoma State should be particularly impressive to the committee; chairman Jeff Long said Tuesday night the Sooners were a solid No. 3.

There are clear favorites in the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC championship games, but you can never rule out chaos.

A win over Clemson gives North Carolina the signature victory it’s sorely lacking, and the absence of which explains the Tar Heels’ No. 10 ranking. They played five games and the Big Ten won three.

The selection committee jumped the Tar Heels from 14th to 10th, but that leaves little doubt that victories over two FCS schools (North Carolina A&T and Delaware) are more of an albatross around North Carolina’s neck than a loss to Texas is for Oklahoma. North Carolina (11-1) 11. Even then, the committee would have to be convinced a two-loss Stanford team deserves a spot over a one-loss Ohio State team.

Iowa’s Jordan Canzeri had 2 TDs last week at Nebraska to help propel the Hawkeyes to 12-0. However, on championship weekend Ohio State whipped Wisconsin 59-0.

It is down to the final week of the college football season with some conferences finishing off their regular season schedules while others will have their conference championship games.

The good news is that Iowa fans would get to go to the Rose Bowl, which at least a third of Iowa fans would rather do than go to the Playoff anyway.

Ultimately, Long said the committee felt Clemson’s two wins over top-10 teams and undefeated record played a factor in the decision. The Tar Heels will be unhappy, but what team wouldn’t?

But there is still a slight chance for drama if either Clemson or Alabama suffers a shocking upset loss on Saturday.

The irony here is that Ohio State is in a position that it was rooting against last season, hoping that the overall eye test will matter more than anything else. Coming off a win over Notre Dame, Stanford would make a strong case for the CFP with a conference title victory over a revitalized USC team. North Carolina 11-1 11.

But the selection committee remains starry eyed about ‘Bama namely because…it’s ‘Bama.

While it all might be clear-cut to everyone else, and the top four might seem relatively obvious, the College Football Playoff committee still fights it out each and every week putting together the top 25.