Championship Weekend Preview: Playoff what ifs?

The Cotton Bowl would then get the highest-ranked at-large team, which would be No. 7 Penn State.

GOLDMAN: I feel I have a pretty good sense from the latest poll from this week, which says Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, The University of Washington are the top four ranked in that order.

And here’s one more wild scenario to chew on: What happens if both Clemson and Washington lose? They beat Hawaii by 60, Rutgers by 78 and Maryland by 56.

Ten of the 25 teams in last week’s rankings lost during the past weekend and nine of those teams were ranked No. 11-23. Michigan’s came on a last second FG to Iowa, and a double overtime thriller to Ohio State. At the time the committee didn’t know if he would return this season, yet kept the Wolverines at No. 3. With Ohio State’s current situation, this is also the first time the committee has had to face the idea of including a team that hasn’t won, or wasn’t even a part of, their conference championship game.

The selection process might be suspenseful for Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan and some other teams.

“The separation between No. 4 Washington and No. 5 MI is extremely small”, Kirby Hocutt acknowledged Tuesday during the release of the latest rankings.

“If Washington loses and Alabama wins and Clemson wins”, analyst Kirk Herbstreit said during ESPN’s show Tuesday, “my opinion, Michigan goes to No. 4”.

While Alabama and Ohio State are safely in, the other two spots are more than up for grabs. If that happened, no ACC team would make the playoff, opening the door for someone, potentially a 10-2 Oklahoma State.

Ohio State is the only team now inside the playoff that can not win its conference. A loss in the conference championship game could cost the Buckeyes. He also talked about the “small separation” between Washington and MI. In my eyes you couldn’t, but to many, the question would then be what’s the significance of even winning your conference?

Some believe that MI could still leap Washington if they don’t win impressively enough, but that does not seem likely at all. Both the MAC and the American Conferences have performed better than the Big 12 that saw Kansas earn its first FBS win in two years against Texas.

And there’s a buzz around the Big Ten.

While the Big 12 won’t have any playoff drama to worry about, things could get interesting at the top. No. 4 Washington (11-1, 8-1 Pac 12) (8 p.m. Friday, KDFW/Ch. 4): Washington could be the biggest beneficiary of Colorado’s resurgence. All Big 12 teams will end their regular seasons in November next season.

Penn State and Wisconsin – The victor of this game needs to see either Clemson or Washington lose.

No. 2 Ohio State. That means, at most, there will be two spots up for grabs if both Washington and Clemson lose.

By making the decision to put Ohio State in that season’s playoff – which proved to be the right decision, as Ohio State went on to win the national championship – the committee sent the message that this is how they will determine who gets in when it comes to making tough decisions between similarly accomplished teams. Penn State could have a chance to land a College Football Playoff berth if they win the Big Ten title this Saturday against No. 6 Wisconsin, but a No.7 ranking and a 10-2 overall record may not bode well for the Nittany Lions and head coach James Franklin. Because one-loss Ohio State is still in the conversation, though, any two-loss league champ needs to have a compelling résumé to go along with its title. I believe so. Are they unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country?

Assuming the Buckeyes are a lock, and it looks good for them, and Clemson doesn’t get upset by Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, the debate for the committee when it gathers in Texas on Saturday night to watch games and discuss the only rankings that matter will be Pac-12 or Big Ten.

Maybe it is. We’ll find out this weekend.