China Could Step in After US Pulls Out of TPP Trade Deal

The country’s government oversaw the worst crackdown on dissent in almost three decades. The document, the first of its kind released by China, warned that continued targeted operations by United States patrols would lead to militarisation of the waters. It found that TPP would generate net losses of GDP in the United States and Japan. Instead, he has threatened to label China as a country that manipulates currency.

And yet China doesn’t sound particularly enthused about its elevation. The range of concerns among US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, is vast: from the questioning of alliance burden-sharing, to the new administration’s plans for North Korea, or the black box that is Trump’s strategy – or lack thereof – for dealing with China. A major relief for China at this juncture is avoiding the uncomfortable prospect of dealing with a trans-Pacific trade deal in the Asia-Pacific that would have had rules written by the US.

And it’s happening now: The world order has shifted even before the presidency has changed. China’s claims were rejected by an worldwide court in July, which found they had no legal basis. The “U.S. started it, you benefited from it and now you don’t like it”.

On top of that, China this week pledged to take over leadership of climate-change reduction and green-energy infrastructure if the US follows Mr. Trump’s pledge to walk away from the Paris Agreement, potentially making it a post-fossil-energy superpower.

With the USA withdrawal, China is forging ahead with its own trade alliance called the Free Trade of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) and a 16-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes India.

At the stroke of a pen America will be abandoning a multilateral trading pact that would have embraced 12 Pacific Rim countries, accounting for annual trade of US$30 trillion, or 40% of global GDP.

During his campaign, Trump threatened not only to re-negotiate or reject the North American Treaty Organization (NATO), but to pull the US out of free trade agreements. After 2010, Washington began talks for a significantly expanded, “high-standard” free trade agreement, which would reflect US alliances in Asia and Latin America but exclude China.

The TPP was meant to bridge the gap and connect Washington’s Asia policy into a long-term strategy, binding the region not only to the United States, but also enhancing regional economic interdependence and cooperation.

As in the past, Hanoi has not commented on the imagery provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

In the midst of the acute uncertainty following Trump’s election, governments in Asia and around the world are being compelled to re-evaluate their economic and military strategies. “I think the answer is yes”.

“What I am most anxious about is that there will be a new arms race in the Asia-Pacific due to the tension in the East and South China seas”. The U.S. typically ties its global aid and loans to causes such as gender equality, government transparency and human rights – issues on which China’s authoritarian leaders rarely engage.

China has reason to defend globalization.

“China could possibly set up an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea if the USA continues to intensify patrols and low-altitude spying in the region”, Bloomberg News quoted Wu as telling reporters in Beijing.

And, not surprisingly, the Associated Press reports that China is moving ahead with “rival free-trade initiatives”. Trump’s call for steeper tariffs on products from Mexico and China also will result in retaliatory tariffs.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said he would like to find a way for the TPP’s other 11 countries to find a way to revive a version of the pact.

Nations far outside China’s regional sphere of influence are paying heed.

The final agreement will likely be replete with country-specific exemptions and many tariff lines may remain intact.

“Each one of them has overcome some domestic political objection, some sensitivity, some political cost to come to the table and make this deal”, Mr Lee said. Australia also already has FTAs with its key regional economic partners: the US, Japan, China, Republic of Korea and ASEAN. Beijing said the tribunal had no authority to determine territorial sovereignty. “Often in their statements, they say things like, ‘Maybe China got some things right'”.