College Football Playoff top four remains the same

There’s a theory out there that the College Football Playoff is (and will forever remain) four teams in part because the 12 person committee thirsts attention and relevance, and four teams lends itself to perpetual debate, if for no other reason because there are five power conferences and only four playoff spots.

While either Iowa or Michigan State will lose, idle Ohio State (11-1) must hope another team from above also loses – either Clemson, which plays No. 10 North Carolina (11-1) in the ACC Championship Game, or Alabama, which plays No. 18 Florida (10-2) in the SEC Championship Game. Suddenly Ohio State’s lone loss (17-14 to the Spartans) looks even better and the committee would have to choose between a two-loss ‘Bama team, a two-loss SEC-Champion Florida team, or the one-loss defending national champions. The committee wouldn’t take a two-loss team over the Buckeyes.

It’s worth asking: Could Clemson get in with a loss? Alabama 11-1 3. Oklahoma 11-1 4. A loss and Iowa would be headed to Pasadena to face either Stanford or USC in the Rose Bowl.

The Cougars (11-1) will host the AAC title game and are No. 19 in the new rankings.

Most likely what will happen is that Clemson, Alabama and Michigan State all win, and they along with Oklahoma will provide a great second year of the playoffs.

Stanford (10-2) moved up to No. 7 from No. 9 a week ago after its 38-36 win over Notre Dame on Saturday.

#8 Ohio State 42, #10 MI 13: Michigan entered the game with one of the best defenses in the nation, but the Buckeyes ran all over them, with both Ezekiel Elliott and J.T. Barrett rushing for over 100 yards and scoring multiple TDs in the rout.

Alabama at No. 2 and Oklahoma at No. 3 would give the Sooners a short trip to the Cotton Bowl in North Texas for the other New Year’s Eve semifinal. Combine that with the Coaches poll to the results provided by six different computers (Anderson & Hester College Football Computer Rankings, Billingsly Report, Colley Matrix, Massey Ratings, Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Rankings, Peter Wolfe’s Rankings) and you get more or less the BCS. The conference championship could lift Stanford over Ohio State, but there’s no certainty, especially if the committee looks at how Stanford’s defense has played recently.

Maybe that’s the most frustrating part about the entire committee thing.

The simulation does consider that Ohio State does not have a conference championship.

If Stanford loses, the Buckeyes get a shot to repeat as playoff champs. OSU has a slim chance at the semifinals, but would need lots of help due to not qualifying for the Big Ten Championship game.

Michigan State did what they needed to on Saturday, leaving no doubt in a routine win over Penn State. However, a loss to the Tar Heels would drastically change the outlook for the Tigers’ season and could be enough to bump them out of the top four entirely. North Carolina 11-111. TCU 10-212.

“It isn’t only the FCS victories, it’s the combination of those with the SC loss”, Long said of North Carolina. Temple, 10-2 (25) 23. Will the Tar Heels jump Clemson and Ohio State, which would not win the Big Ten and ACC, respectively?