Cruz gains first lead in Iowa poll

Cruz, a US senator from Texas, has benefited from a decline in support for Carson.

And in 2004, Republican President George W. Bush made inroads with Hispanic voters, which also helped him win the White House, as the group went 44 percent for Bush, while 53 percent went for Democratic rival John Kerry. Nineteen percent backed Trump, while Sen.

He still loses the demographic, but by 19 points, with Clinton scoring the support of 57 percent to Rubio’s 38 percent. Marco Rubio at 11% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4%.

The Monmouth poll was conducted from December 3-6 with 425 likely Republican caucusgoers and carries a +/- 4.8 percent margin of error.

For weeks, Iowa Republican insiders have noted that Texas Sen.

Republicans are divided about Trump’s impact, with 43 percent saying Trump is helping the GOP’s image and 40 percent saying that he has hurt it. In terms of style, 71 percent of Republicans are dubbing Trump’s rhetoric as “telling it like it is”, while a quarter of Republicans say that Trump’s words are “insulting and offensive”.

His slip-ups have occurred at precisely the moment when Americans are paying more attention to candidates’ foreign policy acumen because of perceived security threats overseas and at home.

The results mark the first time Cruz has led in any major Iowa poll and show how much Carson has fallen. “As Ben Carson’s stock has fallen, Cruz has been able to corral most of those voters”, Murray said in a statement Monday. He’s benefitted from Congressman Steve King’s endorsement, and is expected to secure the backing of another influential Iowa conservative in the days to come.

Cruz’s support has jumped by 14 points since October. No other candidate took more than 2 percent support in the poll. Both Republicans have a strong base of support with evangelical voters, who make up a large bloc among likely caucus-goers in Iowa. Rubio was next at 16 percent, followed by Carson at 15 percent.

As recently as October, Carson led in Iowa, attracting 32% support in Monmouth’s survey in the Hawkeye State.

The bad news is that regardless of the poll, Ted Cruz is making big gains among Iowa Republicans – and that may be an even scarier prospect than Trump’s resilience.

The poll did indicate that the vast majority of the respondents were open to changing their minds. Only 20% say they have completely decided on their choice for the GOP nomination.