Don’t bet big on health law changes when mulling coverage

Partial repeal of the Affordable Care Act through a budget reconciliation bill could cause almost 30 million Americans to lose health insurance and 9.3 million to lose government subsidies to help them purchase marketplace coverage, according to a new analysis.

Of the 30 million who would become uninsured, 55 percent are poor or almost poor, with incomes under twice the federal poverty threshold. The analysis is to be published Wednesday morning.

An exodus of insurers could dramatically limit the coverage options for the roughly 10 million people enrolled in the system, potentially creating a backlash.

States that adopted the Obamacare Medicaid expansion-including some states, such as West Virginia and Kentucky, that went for Donald Trump in the presidential election-would see the greatest increases in the percent of their populations that are uninsured, since the Medicaid expansion would likely evaporate with the Obamacare repeal. But the individual exchanges are troubled, with many insurers already questioning their participation after losing hundreds of millions of dollars a year. More than 500,000 would lose coverage in Missouri and more than 200,000 in MS and Kansas.

Republicans have wanted to repeal the individual mandate, requiring people to have health insurance, but experts say the GOP plan is really just re-branding that measure.

Repealing Obamacare could throw the health care industry and the millions of Americans relying on the individual market into a tizzy, top industry lobbying groups warn.

Many are struggling. Central to their problems is that enrollees were sicker and costlier than many insurers expected. That would leave some insurers with insufficient funds to cover claims and force others to leave the market entirely.

Tax credits are created to keep pace with premium increases. However, after a meeting with Mr. Obama, Trump suggested that he will amend, repeal, or replace the law.

President-elect Donald Trump and his nominee for U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services have doubled down on Republican promises to scuttle the Affordable Care Act. And they underscore the challenge confronting the incoming Trump administration and congressional Republicans, who have pledged to roll back key parts of the 2010 health law early next year.

However, CMS said in a statement the annual rate is still below the rates of most years prior to the passage of the Affordable Care Act.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), a member of GOP leadership who has led Republican messaging on Obamacare, told reporters that the Budget Committee is already working on a fiscal 2017 budget resolution so it is ready for January 3.

The Kaiser Family Foundation projects that through the end of 2016, Obamacare exchange customers will receive .8 billion in tax breaks in order to cut the cost of their premiums, based on the number of customers who purchased health insurance as of March 31, 2016.

Because rates for 2017 were set in 2016 and can not readily be changed, many insurers would be sure to lose money in 2017.

Insurers are asking senators for limited changes to the Medicaid program during the transition period, and to ensure a transition period for states that have expanded Medicaid, the program for the poor jointly funded by the federal government and states.

On a per-enrollee basis, overall spending increased by 4.5% for private health insurance, 1.7% for Medicare, and 3.8% for Medicaid.

America’s states and municipalities will have to absorb $7 billion of additional costs in providing health care to their citizens.