Donald Trump’s Phone Call To Guam Governor Eddie Calvo

“Beijing is not able to persuade Washington or Pyongyang to back down at this time, ” the state-run Global Times tabloid conceded in an editorial on Friday.

In other words, despite competing statements from different Trump team officials, the nucleus of a smart North Korea policy was emerging: aggressively pursuing sanctions and compliance from Beijing, moving at a much faster pace than President Barack Obama did with Iran, while trying to reassure Kim of US intent.

“Donald Trump is probably the unlikeliest president of the United States you could possibly imagine, whereas Kim Jong-Un was the chosen heir”, says John Delury, an associate professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.

But China has serious reservations about America’s North Korea policy.

And as the cycle of threat and counter-threat plays out, war is not the only risk. The resolution bans North Korean exports of coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood products, which together account for one third of the country’s already meagre annual export revenue of $3 billion.

It has been threatened by Pyongyang before, but tensions are heightened after reports that the isolated nation has been able to make a nuclear warhead to fit on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could theoretically reach the US.

But China’s proposal for peaceful dialogue appears to have fallen on deaf ears as the United States and North Korea ramp up the rhetoric.

“President Trump reiterated to President Macron the United States’ commitment to stop the North Korean nuclear menace”.

Trump also spoke cryptically about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, telling Calvo, “You notice that he hasn’t spoken recently”.

Not everyone has been surprised by this high level of ambition and progress. Instead, China increased its aid to North Korea earlier this year. But it is also one that the US military has been watching develop for years, with fairly well-defined steps that have led to an ever more complicated and potentially unsafe situation – but not the outbreak of a nuclear war.

Trump responded, “Well, you’re right about that, but unfortunately, you know, we’re living with a very obstructionist group, but maybe that will change”.

Kim’s comments, however, with their conditional tone, seemed to hold out the possibility that friction could ease if the United States made some sort of gesture that Pyongyang considered a move to back away from previous “extremely unsafe reckless actions”. The strategy of negotiating over a nuclear capability that you develop while talks are ongoing is a North Korea invention, borrowed, with great success, by the Iranians.

In Mattis’ defence, he was put in the unenviable position of putting the President’s “fire and fury” comments into context. The communications largely serve as a way to exchange messages, allowing Washington and Pyongyang to relay information. This, in turn, will spark renewed questions around U.S. credibility, raising the stakes further. General Dunford will also visit South Korea and Japan.

In a statement last week, Gen. Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the Strategic Force of the Korean People’s Army, said the plan to fire “four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets.to signal a crucial warning to the US” would be ready by “mid-August”.

Tourists, for the most part, seem to be undeterred by the threats. Perhaps that is an unrealistic ask.