Earth to cross 1°C warming marker this year for the first time

Global mean temperatures at the Earth’s surface is set to exceed pre-industrial levels by one degree centigrade (C) for the first time, according to UK Met Office data.

“We have seen a strong El Niňo develop in the Tropical Pacific this year and that will have had a few impact on this year’s global temperature”, said Stephen Belcher, director of the Met Office Hadley Centre near Exeter, which analysed the HadCRUT global temperature dataset with the Climate Research Centre at the University of East Anglia. As of 2014, the world has emitted two-thirds of the amount of carbon dioxide that can be released under a 2 degree warming limit, the news release said.

Peter Stott, who leads the Climate Monitoring and Attribution team in the Met Office, said people will see more and more years passing the one degree marker and that eventually it will become the norm.

Plans by about 150 countries to curb greenhouse gas emissions, presented ahead of the Paris talks, will slow the rise in temperature from pre-industrial times to around 2.7 degrees, the United Nations said last month.

According to Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, told Mashable in an email that so far this year, global average temperatures are running at 1.05 degrees Celsius above the 19th century average.

The Met Office said to have a two-in-chance of keeping global warming to within 2 degrees was 2900 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent.

“It means hotter global temperatures, more extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods, melting ice, rising sea levels and increased acidity of the oceans”, he said.

The Met Office study drawn up to aid long-term forecasts for local authorities and government bodies is warning residents of the region, and the report states: “The risk of spells of windy or stormy weather is greater than usual”.

“That means we’ve got less than 0.5C of wiggle room left, emphasizing the importance of immediate reductions in carbon emissions”, Mann said. There are limitations in available data in the early instrumental record, making the average temperature in the reference period less certain. That’s why I want an agreement on a global deal in Paris. “We need to ensure that as the costs of clean energy fall, countries can be more ambitious with their climate targets”, the Minister said.

Belcher said 4C of warming would be much more harmful than simply doubling the impacts expected with 2C.

“Pledges to reduce emissions made by countries so far represent a significant commitment but that’s just the beginning”.