Emissions from fossil fuels to drop in 2015

“Our data provides a small glimmer of hope that the steady growth of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may be ending”, said Stanford researcher Robert B. Jackson, the project’s leader. Thanks mainly to changes in China, the worldwide growth in emissions flattened in 2014 and is set to drop slightly this year, said the study.

That has never happened before, he said.

Negotiators hammered out a working draft during the first week of negotiations, but as with most high stakes negotiation numerous crucial details remain undecided.

Dr Canadell said that the strongest decline in emissions was in the European Union, averaging 2.4% decrease per year in the past decade, although some of it was achieved by transferring carbon emissions to emerging economies. “In either case, the trend is a welcome change from the historical coupling of carbon dioxide emissions with economic growth and should be strengthened through efforts at the Paris (climate negotiations) and beyond”.

The global projections for 2015 are estimates and could range from an increase of 0.5 per cent to a decrease up to 1.6 per cent.

The researchers said any continued slow growth of annual Carbon dioxide output will depend on the use of coal in China and in other countries, and if more renewable sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar are used to produce energy.

“This indicates that the old assumption of economic growth being dependent on rising fossil fuel use is broken”.

We recently covered an analysis of global emissions of greenhouse gases in 2014 showing an encouraging slowdown in the growth of those emissions.

What Would 8 Degrees Of Warming Look Like? “There is still a long way to near zero emissions”.

United Nations delegates are now meeting in Paris to hash out a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol – the first global agreement to cut emissions.

But that’s not to say we can all give ourselves a big pat on the back. “The hard work is just beginning”. While it doesn’t sound like much as a percentage, Australia represents just 0.33 percent of the world´s total population – so we’re still punching well above our weight.

Currently, India – the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 2014 – emits as much carbon as China did in 1990. That’s largely due to a lot more solar and wind power and natural gas replacing coal in the U.S.

The findings of a study conducted by leading climate scientists was presented at the COP21 climate change summit in Paris yesterday.

Earlier this year, for the first time since records began, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere reached a record global average of 400 parts per million – the highest level in over 650,000 years. “We have many scientific tools in our toolbox, and bringing them together is a powerful approach to asking questions and to solving problems”.

Professor Martin Manning, of Victoria University’s Climate Change Research Institute, says the data show China’s 2015 carbon emissions will not only be less than 2014 but that the rate of decrease is faster than the European Union or the US.

“That’s obviously good news, but at this point in a negotiation like this, people are pretty focused on the business at hand”.

The authors cautioned that this year’s “pause” is not likely to last, as developing economies in India and elsewhere around the world are projected to increase emissions from coal and oil in the coming decades.