EPA lowers fuel economy expectations

Instead, they said automakers will likely only be able to achieve an average of between 50 and 52.6 miles per gallon by the deadline.

The U.S. government says the fuel economy of the nation’s fleet of cars and trucks likely won’t meet its targets in 2025 because low gas prices have changed the types of vehicles people are buying. If current trends persist, then USA vehicles could have an average efficiency of 50.8 miles per gallon by 2025.

The report Monday kicked off a two-year review process leading to a government decision on whether to leave the standards in place through 2025 or change them.

“The government is acknowledging the effect of factors like low gas prices on consumer sales, and the impact of consumer sales on the targets”, the auto group said.

In recent years, and responding to the standards established in the National Program, automakers have been rapidly adopting fuel-efficient technologies like turbo charging, engine downsizing, more sophisticated transmissions, vehicle weight reduction, aerodynamics, and idle stop-start, along with improved accessories and air conditioning systems.

“Given changes in the market landscape, it will be a daunting challenge to meet the very aggressive requirements of the 2022-2025 federal fuel economy and greenhouse gas rule”, said Gloria Bergquist, a spokeswoman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers. “It’s time for USA automakers to put their clean vehicle programs into high gear”. At this time, the government hopes to achieve a fleet-wide target of 54.5 miles per gallon for United States vehicles. There are different fuel economy goals for SUVs as opposed to cars, and with lower gas prices, consumers are buying a lot more SUVs, pulling down the average.

The EPA and the DOT are jointly responsible for developing vehicle efficiency standards, which assign each company an average corporate standard based on their expected sales each year.

The shift could slightly undercut one of Obama’s signature climate initiatives, trimming the greenhouse gas benefits as cheaper-than-expected oil prices – and large ad campaigns – have lured auto buyers toward bigger vehicles than anticipated. The administration said it would save consumers $1.7 trillion at the gas pump, cut US oil consumption by 12 billion barrels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6 billion metric tons over the approximately 25-year life of the program. But environmentalists and others say automakers are already beating the targets in many cases, so the government shouldn’t weaken them.

However, the assessment also finds that battery costs are lower today than they were originally anticipated to be 10 years from now, suggesting hybrid or electric vehicles could be more affordable. “The draft report supports that the administration’s fuel economy program can continue to incentivize innovation and reduce fuel consumption while also ensuring that consumers can continue to choose the vehicles they want to drive”.

Administration officials on Monday said the key finding of their analysis is that automakers can comply with the mandates using known technology, and deliver benefits in terms of fuel savings and greenhouse emissions cuts that outweigh the estimated $894 to $1,245 per vehicle in costs, the 1,200-page document says. There are over 100 vehicle, SUV, and pick-up truck versions on the market today that already meet 2020 or later standards, suggesting that automakers should be well-positioned to meet future average standards through additional application of those technologies. The administration also said auto owners would save more than $8,000 by 2025. The agencies differ on how much consumers would save in gas, but they estimate it’s between $680 and $1,620 per vehicle.