EU’s Belarus Sanctions Call Hinges on Sunday’s Election

It wasn’t the only uncharacteristic move this week for the longtime authoritarian ruler.

Approximately 1,000 protesters demonstrated against Putin’s plan to build the air base in Minsk on Sunday.

In the days leading up to election, young voters who advocate political change in Belarus told Al Jazeera the decision they face on Sunday is not which candidate to vote for, but whether or not to follow opposition leaders’ boycott calls.

Belarus’ gross domestic product shrank by 3.5 percent in the January-August period and the average monthly wage has fallen by about a third in dollar terms since the start of the year to $420. More important than the election itself is what happens afterward.

If all goes smoothly, Lukashenko could see the European Union lift sanctions against him and his regime. Their release was seen as an effort to improve relations with the West.

He has a history of silencing, even jailing his political opponents. It was a similar scene in 2010.

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus with a heavy hand since 1994 and delivered GDP growth every year until 2015 – despite being criticised in the west for human rights abuses, including the stifling of independent media and the arrests and mysterious disappearances of critics.

“It’s clear that the military base aims against Kiev”, opposition leader Mikalai Statkevich said at the Minsk protest Sunday.

Following the 2006 and 2010 elections, Europe and the United States either extended or imposed new sanctions on the country.

The question is not who will win the election, but whether, when he does, Lukashenko will introduce reforms to move towards the west or fall further into Moscow’s tight embrace. “The European Union needed to respond to the freeing of the political prisoners”, a second diplomat said. An arms embargo will remain.

Another engineer, Sergei, agrees: “People killing each other over their beliefs, we definitely don’t need that”. I hear shrieks from the opposition about the deployment of a Russian airbase. The BelaPAN news agency and online publication naviny.by keep their computer servers in Belarus with a state-owned telecommunications company. “I feel surprised and, to a few extent, angry and annoyed by that”. “We destroy the myths of the official Belarusian propaganda, and in an election year this is especially risky for the government”, said Belsat journalist Olga Chaichits.

“It was no coincidence that Putin announced installing this base before the election”, Kramer said.

“Depending on Lukashenko’s conduct at the presidential election, the decision to lift sanctions for four months will be formally adopted on Monday”, said one senior European Union diplomat close to the issue.

“I came here to make sure you’re not a KGB agent”, says one woman in the audience of about 50 people.

The war in Ukraine has made Belarus and other countries that rely heavily on Russian Federation uneasy, creating tension with Moscow.

The centrally controlled Belarusian economy is struggling, dragged down by its reliance on agreements for cheap fuel, credits and trade with Russian Federation, which has itself been hit hard by Western sanctions and a plummeting oil price. Putin’s government has not been clear on the goal of the base, but it would increase Moscow’s ability to interfere in Ukraine.