The Federal Reserve decided not to lift its key interest rate about two weeks ago, but New York Fed President William Dudley says a rate hike will likely come before 2016.
“We have this environment where the market is quite flat in its dollar longs, the rates market is only pricing in a 40 per cent probability of the Fed going this year, but we think they will hike in December, so we think there’s a lot of dollar upside from here”.
Weakening economic conditions around the globe, notably in China, have pushed commodities <strong>pricesstrong> lower have and combined with a strong USA dollar and weak US wage growth to hold <strong>inflationstrong> below the Fed’s target range.
He said the Fed would not deliberately “overshoot” the inflation target, but after the damage done by the 2007 to 2009 recession he also sees value in letting unemployment fall as low as possible even if that means a faster pace of price increases. This came after Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, commented on the possibility of a rate hike later this year.
“Global uncertainty has gripped markets while central bank action in the world’s major economies continues to drive volatility“, FastMarkets analyst Tom Moore said. Trader and investors are waiting for US employment numbers later this week to anticipate the timing of the Federal Reserve hike in USA interest rates.
Evans said it might be the middle of 2016 before inflation starts rising to a level where he would be comfortable raising rates.
Hilsenrath noted that there isn’t much economic data between now and the Fed’s meeting in late October that could significantly alter the Fed’s outlook.
Williams said he thought the economy would reach full employment by the end of this year or early next year. In contrast, palladium, used more heavily in petrol auto catalysts, was poised for its biggest weekly rise since December 2011, up nine per cent, on expectations that consumers could move away from diesel towards petrol vehicles.
Carl Riccadonna wrote after the Labor Department said the US gained 142,000 jobs last month, less than the 201,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Although he did not vote to raise short-term interest rates from zero at the Fed’s September meeting, Williams said Monday that he thought it would be “appropriate” to begin raising interest rates this year. He said between July, when he agreed with the Fed’s decision to keep rates near zero, and September, he became more anxious the central bank was falling behind the curve. Yet he also said the Fed was getting ready to act.
“We now expect the Sedlabanki to raise rates by at least another 50bp this year, which would take the benchmark lending rate to 6.75% by year-end”.