Federal experts: This El Nino may be historically strong

The upcoming El Nino will hit the northern hemisphere as one of the strongest in recorded history. Either way, it will be severe.

As per the reports, the change in weather pattern, as expected following El Nino’s arrival, would be first in 65 years. In any case, it will be extreme. Daniel Berlant of the state’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection says crews already have battled 1,500 more fires than a normal year. While a heavy downpour of rain might sound heavenly to Californians, Mike Halper of the NOAA says: “There’s no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day”.

Halpert notes that weather predictions can be hard, especially when looking months into the future.

A NOAA forecast calls the current conditions “significant and strengthening”, with the potential to be the strongest since 1997-1998. “Certainly that’s possible”, Halpert said. “The Pacific Northwest could be dry”.

ANALYST’S TAKE: “Market sentiments are noticeably more composed today”, said Bernard Aw, a market strategist at IG. While overall precipitation was close to average, there was a remarkably early snowpack melt and runoff, with river flows and temperatures that are normally seen in August arriving in July.

Higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have pointed towards an aggressive El Nino season. Halpert notes that weather prediction is complex and there are always surprises.

While there may be more rain and snow in California, it isn’t likely to be enough to end the drought, said Kevin Werner, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s western region climate services.

The graphs above show that for Boston, during an El Nino, temperatures are warmer, precipitation is greater but snowfall is lower. But if it does what it has in the past, it would change where the jet stream travels and keep the Polar Vortex up near the North Pole where it belongs. El Ninos are generally thought to have the most influence on winter weather, but this one may be associated with an extremely wet May and an unusually consistent stretch of thunderstorms experienced over the summer, Redmond said.

If you were around for one of these previous strong El Ninos’, you probably remember the flooding of freeways and the damage to piers and waterfront homes.