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Fewer cyclones expected this season
Posted On Oct 13 2015
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Category 5 tropical cyclones, with mean winds speeds greater than 196kmh, were also known to happen during seasons like the coming one.
However, the bureau warns there are no guarantees and northern regions should make their preparations as normal.
Senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, Agata Imielska, said the main reason for the reduced cyclone likelihood was due to El Nino. The remnant low produced record, devastating floods two weeks later over northern Queensland.
Last season, 10 tropical storms reached cyclone strength on the Australian east and west coasts, just under the national average of 11.
The BOM’s 2015-16 tropical cyclone season outlook says there’s only a 27 per cent chance of exceeding the average in the eastern region.
The Southwest Pacific, including New Zealand, is at risk of more tropical cyclones than usual as the el nino weather pattern continues to strengthen.
El Nino’s impact on the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to trim the number of cyclones that form through April next year, he said. The outlook for the 2015/2016 season indicates that 11 to 13 tropical cyclones are expected in the Southwest Pacific, with at least six of those expected to be severe (Category 3 or higher). Typically between about 15% and 40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region will have an impact upon the coast.
“Hopefully, there’ll be less downtime in that region for the ports and for the rigs, because it’s a very expensive course of action to shut them down”, he said. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact the coast.
Around the globe, the monitoring and forecasting of tropical systems is looked after by a Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) or a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC), depending on the location of the cyclone.
The Northern region has a 64% chance of avoiding historical averages while the Eastern region is similarly placed with a 74% chance of fewer than average cyclones. Outlook accuracy in this region is low.
